Thread by @Usherwood

So, what to make of today?

1/

Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/

Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/

Despite some mvt at back end of last week on non-IE issues (as per @simoncoveney's 90% comments), there's still more than enough to occupy minds for some time yet

4/

Much as everyone loves playing Negotiation Rollercoaster, it's less stressful (and less likely to result in missteps/mistakes) if things are kept a bit lower-key

5/

Partly, it's mgt of domestic audiences (esp in UK).

It's well and good to be shot of #CFC18, but May is facing end of recess, so CON pressure will continue in coming days/weeks

6/

If we assume part of her strategy is to leave things to relatively late, so alternatives can't gain traction, then rushing to a WA deal now isn't helpful

7/

Also need to note that EU isn't all in lock-step on PD (esp France), so incentives for UK & COM to play for 'progress' for Oct #EUCO, to allow for Nov final bargain, manoeuvring 'colleagues' on-side as they go

8/

Finally, it's partly about managing the little flurry of solutions on Irish dimension

9/

As @hayward_katy can/has pointed out, these aren't necessarily new or technically viable, but as political ground is moving into end-game, calculations of what might be on the table are changing too

10/

EU still needs to protect backstop, UK still needs to win something to get past Parliament, but more willingness right now to try out some different ways of tackling things

11/

Maybe main thing to take from all this is that this isn't really about running before you can walk, since even walking as been a struggle in Art.50

Instead, it's a reflection of the tendency to leave hard choices to crunch points

12/

In that sense, it's like last Nov/Dec (with Jt Rpt), but much more involved

Which might also suggest it'll not go smoothly

/end