The government finally published it’s notice concerning to the continuation of FTAs in the case of a no-deal scenario. So it’s time for a thread with some comments. gov.uk/government/pub…
The notice starts what would happen in case of the implementation period. And oversimplifies - so what happens? First of all, a transition period (which is = implementation period) only happens if there’s a withdrawal agreement. 
Second, in that case the EU will notify all third countries that the UK should be treated as an EU member. But that’s no guarantee that this works. Because third: a third country might ask for something and, worse, fourth: can a third country do this legally under its own law?
This is non-obvious. The third country might well assess the situation legally and say the UK is not an EU member. Letting the agreement continue by a notice then becomes, actually, signing up to a new treaty. To which a national parliament might have to agree.
The rest of the notice covers the no-deal scenario. BUT ONLY for FTAs. There’s nothing on the 700+ other agreements. This is ok, of course, as this is the FTA notices.
The government’s position has long been “we will try to roll these over as they are”. This has long been wrong, because we don’t want to do that with all of them. The notice actually sort of covers this here
Of course it does not say “so we won’t reproduce the EEA agreements”. It should. We won’t. We don’t want to. But this is politics. I also don’t think we want to reproduce Switzerland or Turkey in an identical manner. Oh well.
What to expect after Brexit day? The note gives two scenarios: a) we have a “rolled over” deal, b) we don’t. B means: WTO terms. What about a?
The goal is stay as close to the FTA as possible. However, there are areas where this is not possible. Rules of Origin for example. There “may” (actually “almost certainly will”) be practical changes. Rules of origin define when a product benefits from preferential FTA terms
How likely then is the scenario that the rollover will happen in time? The note does not say. DIT is hard at work - and given the circumstances they are working under: performing admirably. But there’s a 0% chance to have these ready for Brexit day. Why?
Let’s assume DIT is heavenly and perfect. They get the data to get new RoOs, everything ready to go on our side. But there are other sides. Let’s say they don’t ask for anything (not likely) and have their data (not likely), they will have procedures for new FTAs.
Hence the transition period would be helpful here too.
So, verdict on the note: solid work, but nothing surprising, nothing new and in particular: not shedding any of the political constraints. No explicit “we don’t want to roll over the EEA”, no explicit “more time needed”. But: this is NOT DIT’s fault.
This is the logical consequence of the masters (i.e. politicians) having said again and again that “a deal has been reached” where it hasn’t. DIT doesn’t make that mistake. But it is doubtful that the notice erases (or could erase) the damage done by such statements.
Also: the notice stresses, rather than prevents, uncertainty. It says: “in case of no-deal Brexit there might be an agreement that will look somewhat different or possibly not”. What is my advice for companies planing for no-deal? plan for WTO terms.
