Very little is clear about the Kavanaugh effect. Trump's approval has gotten better but the generic ballot hasn't for the GOP, and has maybe gotten worse for them among likely voters.
Also, the theory that like Dem enthusiasm was already capped out pre-Kavanaugh doesn't make sense. Only 40-45% of the eligible voters typically vote in the midterms. That's quite low! You can never have enough enthusiasm. You're never really near the point of diminishing returns.
For instance, if GOP voters turned out at a rate that was really high for a midterm, but Democrats turned out at a rate that was on the *low* end for a *presidential year*, you'd have a massive, massive Democratic wave.
