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Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Wales.

"Would you support or oppose holding a second referendum on Britain's
membership of the EU to confirm or reverse Britain's decision to leave the EU?"

Support 41% (+1)
Oppose 49% (+4)
Don't know 10% (-5)

changes since late June

YouGov/Welsh Barometer Nov 2
Again, Wales only

"If there was another referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union
tomorrow, how would you vote?"

Remain 53%
Leave 47%

Don't knows/would not vote excluded
"Please imagine that no deal is reached between Britain & EU and there is then a referendum on whether to leave the EU or remain in the EU. In this scenario how would you vote?"

Remain 54%
Leave 46%

Suggest follow @RWynJones @roger_scully who know a lot more about Wales than me
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More from @GoodwinMJ see all

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Prime Minister May's dilemma

How Conservatives would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 25%
V
May Deal 56%

Remain 27%
V
No Deal 63%

May Deal 33%
V
No Deal 51%

1st preference in three-way EURef: Leave with No Deal

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
How Leavers would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 11%
V
May Deal 55%

Remain 13%
V
No Deal 70%

May Deal 19%
V
No Deal 60%

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
How Remainers would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 84%
V
May Deal 6%

Remain 84%
V
No Deal 7%

May Deal 49%
V
No Deal 10%

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
Read 4 tweets
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What's going to kick off in 2019

I'm late to the p-a-r-t-y
Populists and Eurosceptics will enjoy their strongest election in the history of European Parliament elections at #EP2019 in May
For reasons that I outline here @unherd bit.ly/2ViXw1w
Read 71 tweets
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Happy Christmas Twitter. I have 5 FREE copies of National Populism

First 5 to message me name + address get the book this week

Direct messages open, postage on me

amzn.to/2LkyPgL
all gone
And the winners are
Lewis
Jakob
schnorrerlox
Theo
Jon H
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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NEW - More German people, mystified at Britain's decision to leave the EU, "Can you comprehend why people voted for Brexit?" "Absolutely not, no, not at all, not even a bit" Some even picked up on the sinister censorship from another era...not a good look for a global Britain.
compare and contrast......1
compare and contrast......2
Read 3 tweets
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Hey, Leavers... If the mood of the country hasn't changed, what's the harm in holding a second referendum?

Equivalent of "Are you sure?" pop-up when you try to delete a bunch of files, or close several browser tabs.

If the UK's still sure, it will deliver the same result.
Because if the majority opinion today is the same as in 2016, you should be all over the idea.

After all, the best way to silence irritating critics is to *prove* we still want to leave the EU!

And if the mood has changed, then, well, the "we won get over it" narrative is dead.
Added, since there's been quite a bit of pushback...

Either the result will be the same, in which case the noisy remainers will shut up (or at least go much more quiet than now!)

Or it will be different, demonstrating how essential it was to double check the original decision.
Read 4 tweets
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Sometimes I feel a bit of perverse gratitude for the awfulness of the Trump administration, not only because its flamboyance increases our chances of avoiding a Hungarian outcome, but because otherwise I'd probably be focused on the Brexit debate, which is a dispiriting mess 1/
But I can't avoid Brexit entirely, so here are some thoughts about where it stands. Simon Wren-Lewis's schematic picture of the options gets at the basics: the promises of the Brexiteers were nonsense, and now there's a tradeoff 2/ mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/12/mps-ne…
The "Norway option" would minimize the cost of Brexit, but would actually leave the UK with less sovereignty than staying in. The May deal would lead to less sovereignty and economic costs. Only a hardish Brexit would gain some control 3/
Read 9 tweets
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Thread: I am hearing a lot of talk about a second referendum and going back to the question of reforming #freemovement, including this report from @sundersays on @nick_clegg's conversations around #Europe. I think this is a dangerous route to go. Here is why.
First, I am sure that governments across the EU have concerns about abuse of free movement. But this abuse, while serious, is marginal and receives very little attention from media and public opinion on the Continent.
Second, while some minor reforms to #freemovement are not only possible but also necessary, as @COdendahl and myself explain here - cer.eu/publications/a…, they won't happen any time soon and will surely be less likely to happen if a perceived 'blackmailing' comes from UK again
Read 5 tweets
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@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis Let's look at the facts:
1. The Ref MPs voted for was advisory
2. Cameron then made it binding in the minds of voters who don't understand the niceties of our constitution, which was shabby & underhand of him, because he created a political imperative to take the Ref advice

/1.
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis 3. Parliament never formally made the decision to leave, but gave Mrs May the power to trigger #Article50 through the shameful A50 Bill (launched before its rubbish White Paper was released), which converted Parliament into an irrelevant rubber stamp in the #Brexit process.

/2.
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis 4. Under pressure from the Economic Ruin Group (ERG), Mrs May triggered A50 prematurely, without impact assessments and, crucially, without agreement in her party as to what form #Brexit should take, let alone a plan.

/3.
Read 20 tweets
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Unite Members:

57% backed #PeoplesVote
24% leave voters backed #PeoplesVote

West Midlands car workers:
“Only now have voters started to see through the initial referendum campaigns and truly understand the implications & costs of leaving the EU."

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Unite union:

"open to the possibility of a vote on any deal the Tories come back with"

"members fears that the Tories' in-fighting and destructive red lines will bring ruin to their jobs and communities"

Unite Statement:
unitebrexitcheck.org/unite-policy-c…

#PeoplesVote
Great speech by Julie Ward MEP on why she marched with #WomenForEurope for a #PeoplesVote

Women and the young will be the most affected by #Brexit



#PeoplesVote
#StopBrexit
#FBPE
Read 50 tweets

Trending hashtags

#EU #Hayes #opendats #Luton #migration #Rhondda #smartciities #Lancaster #crisi #Hyde #own #Juncker #smatcities #electroneum #brexit #BorisJohnson #FinalSay #Europe #asset #retweet #aii #RussiaAttacksUkraine #Oil #Portsmouth #WorldWide

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