Sometimes I feel a bit of perverse gratitude for the awfulness of the Trump administration, not only because its flamboyance increases our chances of avoiding a Hungarian outcome, but because otherwise I'd probably be focused on the Brexit debate, which is a dispiriting mess 1/
But I can't avoid Brexit entirely, so here are some thoughts about where it stands. Simon Wren-Lewis's schematic picture of the options gets at the basics: the promises of the Brexiteers were nonsense, and now there's a tradeoff 2/ mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/12/mps-ne… 
The "Norway option" would minimize the cost of Brexit, but would actually leave the UK with less sovereignty than staying in. The May deal would lead to less sovereignty and economic costs. Only a hardish Brexit would gain some control 3/
You can see why the idea of a second referendum is gaining steam: voters were lied to, and they're starting to realize that. HOWEVER, if you're going to make the case for calling the whole thing off, you should do what Brexiteers didn't, and be honest about the tradeoffs 4/
First, drop the hysteria about the costs of no deal. It's true that the complete absence of contingency planning means that a sudden end to the customs union would cause huge disruptions -- but that could still be avoided, and wouldn't last all that long 5/
Bear in mind that the US and Canada don't have a customs union -- there are still checks at the border -- and that doesn't prevent us from having tightly integrated manufacturing sectors. Here's what that border looks like right now 6/ cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/bwt-taf/menu-e…
Exiting the customs union would still be costly, but not 8 percent of GDP costly. Meanwhile, you need to be realistic about what canceling Brexit would mean: it would still be the same old EU, with the same arrogance and intellectual rigidity. 7/
Put it this way: the people who brought you the ill-conceived euro and the austerity crisis don't seem to have learned anything. They still view the euro and EU institutions in general as things that can't fail, they can only be failed. Not gonna change 8/
All that being said, if I were British I'd be for a second referendum and would vote to remain. The EU, for all its flaws, is a good thing on balance. But do it with open eyes, and without either scare tactics or romanticizing what you're doing 9/
