Thread by @tony_nog

1) #Brexit & "understanding leaver's concerns" - thread

As we prepare for a #PeoplesVote there's been discussion on how Remain needs to listen to "the causes of Brexit"

I'm going to give the perspectives of 4 leavers I know, because potentially it's not that simple

2) these are friends and colleagues. All very well educated & in well paid work or comfortably settled. I can't say that they are representative, but there is a common theme in all their attitudes which I'll be honest in saying is fairly simplistic & not particularly appealing

3) the first said their reason for leaving was it was too easy for a migrant to get treatment on the NHS.

In terms of the NI issue & how reunification might impact "British" NI residents she said "well, if you're going to live there it's your own fault because it was a risk"

4) the second is essentially concerned that we will be "overrun by east Europeans", and should distance ourselves from the migrant crisis. He's obsessed with Merkel letting in 1m migrants.

5) his attitude to any post brexit hit on the UK deficit is "well, we should cut benefits down as much as we need to and force people to take the jobs the Europeans have been taking"

He owns 3 houses that are virtually paid for and freaked out when Hammond changed the tax regs

6) the next, over drinks, said he is starting to regret his vote but talked about the millions of people who are potentially moving north from Africa and how the EU has been poor on dealing with them.

7) But when asked "how does the EU breaking up make that issue more solvable?" or how essentially this would leave front line countries such as Italy & Greece on their own to deal with this he had no response.
I was left feeling his view was "not our problem"

8) the final Leaver said he was happy to accept any economic impact from a crash out onto WTO because it was a matter of principle.

He has had a lucrative career and plans to retire in a few years in his late 50s

9) it also took 2 hours, with analogies, before he understood that we would never accept what the UK is asking for if the roles were reversed and France had asked for the same deal, and therefore 27 nations might also feel the same way - a shocking lack of political empathy

10) now, they are all nice people, and I'm personally find of them. But there are some consistent themes.
They're generally comfortable with complex issues being someone else's problem, and happy for the UK to "opt out" of issues such as the migrant crisis

11) migration is an issue for all of them, though most would strenuously deny it, and this is particularly strange because they are all comfortable & headline issues such as possible wage undercutting or school places don't impact any of them

12) they're fairly comfortable with economic impact from Brexit, but they are all well off and would be shielded from that impact - they don't seem to have any self awareness about how this is an easy call for them.

13) generally there's a feeling that they are fairly selfish in their politics, see little benefit in international cooperation & collaboration, are happy if we leave big issues to "other people", don't care about NI and are ok with a downturn as long as it doesn't hit them

14) Austerity is not an issue for them, nor is being "left behind". They are classic social conservatives, absolutely not the kind of people who would vote for Corbyn for example

15) how do you reach these people? I'm not sure, but they don't share any values with typical Remainers.

I suspect that unless they feel that they personally will be impacted financially they won't flip, they feel they can afford not to.

16) but ultimately whilst individually they are nice people collectively they have a fairly selfish, isolationist & above all pretty simplistic set of "ideals". They will never get the EU, and in all likelihood we will need to go around them in the next campaign

17) but ultimately I suppose I'm saying we are kidding ourselves if we say "austerity caused Brexit", we just give these people & their attitudes a free pass.

It's no coincidence that Brexit is far more popular with Tory voters than Labour
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