Right. Have now read the Northern Ireland protocol. The original backstop, which May said no PM would ever sign up to, is largely there. It is complemented by a customs union for the whole UK and EU.
That customs union is minimal. As @alexebarker points out, there aren't regulatory agreements (free movement for lorry drivers, absence of vet checks, agrifood regulatory alignment) that allow for no hard border. ft.com/content/6b6f8a…
The joint committee of UK and EU will oversee the protocol. Both parties must agree to end it (no time limits or unilateral UK withdrawal).
The agreement repeatedly says the UK and EU will seek to prevent a hard Irish border through the future relationship. But Chequers has already been rejected.
Both sides could agree to a harder border in the Irish sea and an FTA for Britain. Or the EU could say yes to supplementing the UK customs union with more regs. Or a full SM and CU. But the direction of travel is towards a customs union for the whole UK.
If talks break down, the UK will be in a bare bones customs union. A customs union is in the EU's interest, because it maximises the territorial extent of its tariff regime. That is now the baseline for the future relationship, and soft Brexiters can press for SM participation.
That, of course, is if May survives and parliament signs up.
@threadreaderapp unroll
