May's Brex-shit-show: Sunday a.m. update. 1/ The deal can't pass the Commons 2/ May trying to "move on" to the future trading relationship as a ruse to say "nothing's finalised" 3/ No deal is a bluff. Half the Cabinet would not go thru with it...
2/ Corbyn v clear on #Sky: if May can secure a better deal within 7 days, will consider; if not, Labour will vote it down early December. Very few waverers in PLP on this...
3/ Result: Labour ahead 3 points and big drop in Tory poll numbers. Beyond Westminster, ppl see this as a) Tories surrendering their own bluster-infused red lines b) incompetence c) division...
4/ Here's how it plays on the ground. The hard Brexit demos is furious... but coming to understand the nature of the EU as regulatory superpower. Hard Remainers see Corbyn's tactic working...
5/ People's Vote crew seem to understand that defeating the "meaningful vote" Motion in the Commons and then passing one that rules out No Deal is the slam dunk that progressives in Britain can unite on...
6/ After that, I would expect some Tories, including Cabinet members, to come around to Second Referendum, with Remain on ballot, as alternative to election and Corbyn govt...
7/ Business groups meanwhile playing their usual venal Project Fear game, but nobody's listening because they've done if over the first referendum and in Scotland too... it just gets boring...
8/ Labour's strategic task is to split the Leave camp into realists and nutters. If that can produce a forever split in the Tory party, the progressive majority of the UK can get a government that reflects its priorities. That's what we're playing for...
9/ If we end up with a Second Referendum, with Remain on the ballot, there needs to be a non-speculative "reform Lisbon" programme to put to the electorate alongside it...
10/ My preference remains: Labour govt; a Norway-style Brexit deal plus vigorous labour market reform + assurances on state aid - and try to unite the country around that. Am starting to think moral collapse of the Brexit movement more likely - and reversion to status quo...
11/ In the case of the Brexit project morally collapsing, will then get a big far right and fascist movement, but as with Mosley it can be defeated if democrats are prepared to use both mass mobilisation and state power against it. ENDS 
