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Stephen McIntyre @ClimateAudit
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ for "civilians", the most important take-home from proxy data on past climate is whether present climate is "unprecedented" and trending into uncharted territory, the sales pitch of Hockey Stick graphs. High-resolution speleothem data which is continuous from LGM to present..
2/ provides a different perspective. In past 15 years, tremendous expansion of speleothem data, which is almost entirely ignored by PAGES2K. China, in particular, has developed many high-resolution series, one of which (Dongge) shown in this thread.
3/ the most recent value (AD2000) is shown as red dot. It is almost exactly halfway between glacial values (less negative d18O) and early Holocene values (more negative d18O). The shape of this series, in large, is very similar to, but inverted, to common NH Holocene data
4/ the explanation is that low d18O values (mid-Holocene) are associated with higher precipitation (more active monsoon), while elevated d18O values (glacial) are associated with drier, weaker monsoon.
5/ in any event, modern values are unexceptional: they are almost exactly halfway between mid-Holocene and glacial values. They give no evidence of Hockey Stick-ness or of a climate about to go off the rails.
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