1/ I'm following #manbij for news on Syria in wake of US departure announcement. Manbij is flashpoint. It's to east of Aleppo, west of Euphrates. It's held by SDF (Kurds). US still present. Turkey told Trump that they would deal with remnant ISIS. In very south far from Manbij. 
2/ In fact, Turkey's objective seems to be to subjugate "PKK terrorists" i.e. the Kurdish militias employed by US (under alias SDF). To do so, they are deploying thousands of jihadis, presently mobilized north of Manbij.
yenisafak.com/en/news/nearly…
yenisafak.com/en/news/nearly…
3/ many of the jihadis mobilized by Turkey appear to have previously identified as AlQaeda allies, AlQaeda and even ISIS. The logical force to deal with ISIS in south Syria is Syrian government. Which US has long prevented from crossing Euphrates to do so.
4/ if this doesn't appear to make a whole lot of sense, that's because it doesn't.
5/ part of the problem originates in bad decisions at the beginning. It's not just Turkey that lists PKK as a terrorist group. So does USA. Obama admin, in its desire to both fight ISIS and overturn Syrian govt (regime change), shut its eyes to PKK terrorist designation.
6/ with prospect of all-out assault by Turkish-backed jihadis, Kurdish authorities in Manbij have been negotiating its turnover to Syrian government. They've already turned over El-Arima, a town on main highway, where Syrian govt forces are rapidly mobilizing.
7/ as I understand it, residual US forces are still in Manbij. Because of US hostility to Syrian govt, it appears that turnover of Manbij to Syrian army is being delayed until US leaves to avoid confrontation. But at risk that jihadis arrive before Syrian army.
8/ If Syrian govt holds Manbij, then it makes it much more difficult for Turkish-backed jihadis to attack Kurds.
9/ here's link to an article on a former ISIS commander, now a commander of Turkey-backed jihadis mobilizing against Manbij
10/ here's a link to a tweet with a short video of Turkey-backed jihadis advancing on Manbij. Tweet author says that "Da’ish [ISIS] nasheeds playing in the background"
11/ another tweet with short video in which Turkey-backed jihadi faction Ahrar Al-Sharqiya (consisting of AlQaeda/ISIS types) "takes out his knife & says, "The Kafir #Kurds (enemy of God) we're coming for you""
12/ these are the sorts of fighters now mobilizing against erstwhile US allies in Manbij, while US appears to be doing whatever it can to deter Syrian government from coming to the aid of Kurds
13/ here's another picture and link of forces mobilizing against Manbij
yenisafak.com/en/news/nearly…
yenisafak.com/en/news/nearly…
14/ meanwhile, Syrian army is also mobilizing to defend Manbij
15/ another video showing deployment of Syrian soldiers. Presumably they are in Arima, to the west of Manbij.
16/ here's a video showing thousands of Syrian soldiers marching towards Manbij. I guess they wish they had as many Toyota land-cruisers as ISIS and AlQaeda. But then again, they aren't being supplied by Saudi and US.
17/ while it would make sense for Syrian Army to be stationed in Manbij, quote: "Manbij civilian tells me he doesnt think the Syrian Army will enter in the morning he says "i dont think so brother because there are American troops patrolling still"
18/ most recent rumor
19/ to the extent that US (Trump) policy has unleashed Turkey and its jihadis against Kurds, the policy seems ignorantly malevolent to erstwhile ally. While I don't believe in 3-D chess, if Kurds reconcile under Syrian govt because of Turkish threat, it solves a lot of problems.
20/ A) it will deal with Turkey's objection to armed and independent PKK militias; B) it will enable Syrian govt to eradicate ISIS remnants east of Euphrates; C) once Turkey is satisfied on PKK, maybe it will stop aiding AlQaeda and its allies in Idlib.
19/ it appears that US occupation forces want to hand Manbij over to Turkey-backed jihadis, but Kurds and local MMC want to hand Manbij over to Syrian army.
20/ when US leaves, situation in south will simplify tremendously. Syrian army will be able to cross Euphrates and eradicate ISIS remnant in south corner. Only reason that hasn't happened yet is that US has de facto protected ISIS from final defeat by Syrian govt.
21/ Wed 13:32 UTC 3:32 Damascus time
22/ US delayed departure from Manbij. Speculation that they're trying to assist Turkish-backed jihadis (against wishes of Manbij council)
