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Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Three very initial overarching thoughts on the UK-EU future relationship framework:

1. the document is in many areas aspirational, and sets out principles that in practice will be very complicated to square and negotiate.
2. considering May’s guiding principles – end free movement, limit as much as possible economic damage, be able to just about say UK has an independent trade policy – and EU27 principles & mandate – single market integrity – it's clear both sides have compromised to reach a deal
(compromise isn't to be intended as a negative, but as a normality in negotiations. It's more an observation for those who claimed the Commission was mean, and the UK should go direct to member states. Some member states had far more rigid views)
3. Finally, it’s quite extraordinary how many bits of the EU the UK wants to approximate/replicate/participate in. All to be able to say that freedom of movement of people will end.
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More from @AlbertoNardelli see all

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Brexit. Things are getting worse.

1. The withdrawal agreement is needed regardless of the shape of the future relationship. The withdrawal agreement on the table, including the backstop, will not be renegotiated. EU27 cannot be clearer on this point – and this is the key point.
2. Throughout these negotiations, so many problems have been created by N10’s inability & unwillingness to set realistic expectations, explain tradeoffs and communicate clearly. As the PM runs out of road, the confusion over the withdrawal agreement is the latest example
3. The political declaration allows for a full spectrum of future options, but it is not clear what kind of relationship the UK wants. This will require a proper debate on tradeoffs (and years of negotiation). However, whatever that option: you need the withdrawal agreement
Read 7 tweets
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About last night:

1) May went to the meeting seeking legally-binded assurances with half-baked proposals to placate hard Brexiteers & DUP

These have been rejected repeatedly for obvious reasons. Backstop is an insurance policy not “a trap.” Not EU27 problem many MPs ignore this
2) May was asked by several leaders, and, I am told, most emphatically by Chancellor Merkel: 'what is it that you want?'

The prime minister was unable to provide an answer to this question with any precision.
That is where May is at in a nutshell: Nearly two years after triggering article 50, the UK does not have an answer to the question, "what do you want?"

There are also concerns that the UK – across the political spectrum – has no idea what kind of future relationship it wants.
Read 7 tweets
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EUCO draft Brexit conclusions: I understand that paragraph 5 (EU stands ready to examine whether any further assurances can be provided..) has gone.
Par. 1, which wasn't in square brackets, is of course unchanged: "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Par 2 unchanged: EU reiterates wish for 'as close as possible partnership.." 'stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after withdrawal'. Understand 27 discussed starting prep work on future deal as soon as UK ratifies
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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#BrexitChaos - thread: need for definitions:

#NoDeal #nodealbrexit means crashing out: no arrangements with the #EU or other member states, no transition period. Means losing all existing trade deals & years of global negociations
#WTO ≠ trade deal (look it up!) 1/9
@theresa_may #WithdrawalAgreement is the framework for a future #UK #EU future relationship. Allows for an orderly #Brexit with transition period, but leaves many issues to resolve, trade deals and regulations to negotiate, which will take many years and be costly. No "dividend"!
It is possible to #StopBrexit and #Remain. This means staying in the #EU with all current benefits, reciprocal rights and protections, free trade and movement for goods, services and people within the EU. To do this, Govt must #RevokeA50 (Article 50=notice given to #Leave 3/9
Read 10 tweets
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The Commons will vote on 11th December on the PM’s withdrawal agreement and future relationship framework.

After that, House is due to sit on the 12th, 13th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th - six sitting days until Christmas recess.

The Commons returns on 7th January.
According to @commonslibrary if the PM’s Brexit motion is voted down, the government is required to make a statement about it’s intentions within 21 days.

There will only be six sitting days left to do that. January will be too late.
And within seven sitting days, Parliament has to vote on a motion based on the government’s stated intentions.
Read 11 tweets
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Might be worth retweeting this once a week.

The rest is noise as they say.
More dull but essential stuff - a UK EU future relationship deal could be expected to take 5-10 years from start of talks to implementation. If this included tech solutions to Irish border they would probably take a further few years to implement.
During the period of negotiations the UK will have to decide policy on pretty much all EU regulations - are we following or diverging? Including food standards. No deal without a decision. And our starting point is irrelevant.
Read 5 tweets
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It had always been government’s belief that if it cld speak to the Member States rather than the Commission it wld get a better #Brexit deal. The UK, they thought, could divide & rule. Jeremy Hunt’s comments have put an end to that. #Brexit
Comparing the #EU to the Soviet Union is the latest easily avoidable diplomatic error made by a cabinet minister. Hunt’s comments have lead to countries that used to be the UK’s best friends in the Council (like Estonia & Latvia) openly stating that he has insulted them. #Brexit
If the UK was to successfully divide & rule, it needed to keep its friends close. What it is doing is pushing them away. #Brexit
Read 10 tweets
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Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
Read 4 tweets
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EU future relationship guidelines: thread

Tough & no big surprises: EU emphasise both N Ireland as outstanding issue a& Gibraltar in 1st para, reiterate previous guidelines from April & Dec 17 on integrity of single mkt, EU institutions & reference the EP’s 14/3 resolution 1.
EU want close relationship w UK on trade & security but emphasise the UK’s red lines mean it can’t be that deep a deal (so much for deep and ambitious from May) and that there will be negative impacts particularly for UK 2.
Emphasise the EU want a level-playing field with the UK underpinning any deal – if it gets that it will be prepared to be ‘ambitious’; yet again reiterates there is no cherry-picking of the single mkt, & the UK can’t have as close a deal outside the EU as in. 3.
Read 9 tweets

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