Thread by @tony_nog

1) Why was #Brexit doomed to fail? Because it never had a majority
Brexit was doomed from June 24th 2016, from the day after the referendum, because there was not, and never could be, a working majority for it

This poll was taken in September 2016 - and it highlights the failure

2) Now polls are notoriously self selecting however this ran in pro #Brexit telegraph, 52K people took part & the breakdown roughly equals the ref vote

We can translate the questions roughly into Brexit options (no deal wasn't there then,because brexiters weren't that desperate)

3) Lets put Remain to one side for a second. In such a close vote, literally every Leaver would have to want roughly the same thing. But they didn't, it wasn't even close

For every 2 leavers who wanted a Hard Brexit, 1 wanted Norway & the single market, which are polls apart

4) But even more revealing, nearly 40% of Leave voters believed the cakeism fantasies of Johnson, Gove and all the "they need us more than we need them" Leave leaders - they wanted "everything we want", luxury, consequence free, "that'll show 'em", Rule Britannia #Brexit

5) But OK, we knew what we were voting for, and we knew that Brexit wouldn't be easy. We were prepared to pay because it isn't just about money

Only, we weren't. Perhaps 25% of voters are prepared to pay the 3% or more that Brexit will cost us.

6) and this is why May has continued to speak only to Leavers & to ignore Remainers - because it's the Leavers she has to convince, and hold together.

Remainers aren't buying this deal, they also were fully aware that Brexit was going to be painful or pointless

7) But Leavers weren't aware of the painful/pointless Brexit paradox, at least not all of them. Perhaps 20% were, and didn't want a painful brexit, and perhaps 40% were so far gone they didn't care about the consequences

but 40% of Leave voters were in blissful ignorance

8) There has *never* been a workable majority for any kind of #brexit, too many Leavers don't want the pain, and too many are not aware of the pain. As for Remainers? Well we aren't shifting, to us Brexit is & always has been just plain stupid

9) The only hope was to sneak Brexit past us in some way, gaslight us with "the people have voted" & "will of the people" and hope that enough of us would blame the EU for Gove's, Johnson's, May's, Corbyn's stupidity and mendacity.

But that hasn't happened either

10) it is cowardly & irresponsible for public figures to say "we must respect the vote"
It's also stupid
Does anyone really think the majority of the public will thank our politicians for bulldozing ahead out of fear?
Do they think we will blame ourselves, or our representatives?

11) #Brexit cannot be successful, its variations are so far apart (and in some cases imaginary) there will never be a majority of *Leavers*, never mind Remainers, who support it. A majority will always hate any Brexit, and many will feel deceived by it
It just needs to end/