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Robert Peston @Peston
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Watch #peston highlight for important initiative by @hilarybennmp to make sure parliament - rather than @theresa_may - can determine what kind of Brexit or no-Brexit we have, if as expected she loses vote on her deal. PS I understand that...
@sarahwollaston will not table her amendment calling for a #PeoplesVote because she has been persuaded - to her disappointment - that she would lose the vote by substantial margin and that would damage credibility of referendum push. She and others campaigning for referendum...
... will delay big drive for referendum till the anticipated chaos of @theresa_may losing her deal. Striking that @JoJohnsonUK also on #Peston last night said he had residual hope @theresa_may would opt to go for referendum, even though Downing St officials have been clear she...
...would not be PM if there were a #PeoplesVote
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I put to senior government source whether attached is official NHS advice. This was the reply: “No. This is not an official NHS publication. People should trust advice from official NHS sources. We are confident that if everyone does what they need to do, medicine...
”supplies will be uninterrupted, and patients will get their prescriptions in the usual way”. That said, I understand why anyone with chronic or acute illness will be anxious. If @theresa_may really wants no-deal Brexit to be seen as preferable to a referendum, which...
...apparently she does, then providing credible reassurance to the most vulnerable must surely be top priority.
Read 3 tweets
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For the civil service Brexit is becoming very real indeed. Officials at the Department for International Development, which isn't much affected by Brexit in a direct sense, were told this morning that up to 600 of their number - out of just 3000 - may have to be redeployed to...
...departments that are suffering from staff shortages because of their Brexit workloads. One department they are likely to be seconded to, they were told, is @michaelgove's Department for Environment, Food and Regional Affairs. A source at DFID tells me that it won't be till...
...the new year that anxious DFID civil servants know their fate. Another source told me that this unsought Brexit merry-go-round for civil servants will affect every Whitehall department in some way. There is a widespread sense that planning, for both no-deal and a deal-based...
Read 4 tweets
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Very important decision by @ONS that a proportion of student loans should count as public spending, because they will never be repaid. This has big implications. It means government’s annual deficit rises at a stroke by £12bn or 0.6% of GDP. Which...

blog.ons.gov.uk/2018/12/17/acc…
...in turns means 1) there is much less of a perceived saving for government from lending to students rather than giving grants, or funding universities directly (so makes Labour’s grant abolition more affordable), and 2) reduces scope for @PhilipHammondUK to end austerity
Sorry. Solecism just spotted. I meant “Labour’s loan abolition”, not “grant”. But I know you are all smart enough to know what I was driving at.
Read 3 tweets

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9/17: Manafort working on "Kurdish referendum"

"...the Kurdish referendum, scheduled for Monday, would not immediately trigger independence, the American gov't and the international community have expressed serious concerns about it. "
"They fear that, if it passes overwhelmingly, as expected, it could further destabilize Iraq, damage the coalition fighting the Islamic State, and potentially spark violence in disputed areas."
"...the State Department urged Kurdish leaders “to accept the alternative, which is a serious and sustained dialogue with the central government, facilitated by the United States and United Nations, and other partners.”
Read 43 tweets
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Ahem. Sorry to intrude on today's Westminster drama but....

A faction of the Tory Party is trying to unseat @theresa_may over the the Irish backstop #Brexit

But here is why it isn't going away. Whatever happens. Deal or no deal. 1/Thread
@theresa_may First, the simple politics.

The ERG hates the backstop. They want a unilateral exit clause - but the more they talk about that, the more the EU and Irish are going to cling to the need for a backstop that guarantees no return to a hard border. /2
@theresa_may But let us say, for sake of argument, that the ERG gets its way.

The brave new PM (Raab, Boris, DD or whoever) rides into Brussels with an ultimatum: it's the deal-minus-backstop, or No deal.

And against all the odds and predictions of smart alecs like me, the EU caves... /3
Read 20 tweets
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Really sorry of you aren’t interested in Brexit but, well me, my friends and family have to live it and things are getting pretty fluid right now, so I wanted to pull some facts together about Facebook and the referendum that are worth bearing in mind. Thread! 👇
People like @Anna_Soubry and @ChukaUmunna have been making a good case for @peoplesvote_uk based on the idea that in the original ref people didn’t know what kind of Brexit they were voting for. This makes sense because some people voted leave expecting to stay in SM etc 1/
The problem is the counter argument is also good. The mandate granted to the ref was to decide whether we stayed or left and everyone involved was clear about that at the time. To those with a sense of proportion this isn’t convincing but Brexiteers are people of principle 2/
Read 29 tweets
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Brexit Irony No.521:
Brexit would make Metropolitan Elitism worse-

The Brexit vote was against our London-centric system. So if there's an economic hit because of a Brexit London voted against, Westminster would make sure the London Banking sector survived but everywhere else...
Many of the problems that pushed people to vote Brexit had nothing to do with the EU. One of those problems was the government choosing to protect the banks who caused the crash with bailouts while ordinary people just got austerity.
The rich took irresponsible risks with the country's future, but they were protected either by moving their money away or by the government and it was those with least who suffered the most.
Sound familiar? #Brexit
Read 5 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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Theresa May's new Op-Ed on #Brexit. telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/0…

Main proposal is to enshrine Brexit Day 29 March 2019 in UK law
This is again a strategic choice for internal reasons (fix Brexit date!) with devastating consequences for UK position in negotiations
It robs UK of the flexibility to extend negotiations for even a couple of months to ensure ratification, thereby increasing time pressure while UK is already with back at the wall
Read 6 tweets

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