Thread by @michaelh992

Following the suspected Israeli strikes in #Syria, Hezbollah released a rare video threatening to retaliate against any Israeli attack in #Lebanon

The video depicts a series of targets, including several air bases, the Kirya (Israeli Military HQ in Tel Aviv) refineries in Haifa. #Israel #Lebanon

This is nothing new, and it's clear that Hezbollah's effort to build up its precision-guided missile arsenal is meant to try and overwhelm #Israel's air defense systems, and hit key infrastructure

Likely also meant to send a message to Hezbollah #Israel #Lebanon

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1069839234280894464?s=19

#Israel has known about the tunnels for several years now. Just like in Gaza the timing if these ops to destroy tunnels is generally significant

Note that during the recent political crisis Netanyahu mentioned some sort of security threat that would be unveiled in the coming weeks. He may have been referring to this #Israel

Hezbollah tunnels are part of a broader effort by the group to launch attacks inside #Israel should a conflict break out. Israeli assessment is that Hezbollah may try to take control over border communities and drag out confrontation to delay entry of Israeli forces #Lebanon

This would also serve to inflict "psychological" damage to the Israeli homefront and create some war fatigue from the get go. As seen in #Gaza, Israelis are unaccustomed to waging war in their own territory