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Saifedean Ammous @saifedean
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
If central banks buy debt & equity to avoid a crash, markets will have a bigger crash once CBs stop buying. As CBs can't let markets crash, they can't stop buying. The only other possible outcome is complete nationalization & centralized credit allocation m.theepochtimes.com/are-central-ba…
At the end of 2017, central banks, with zero opportunity cost for capital & no profit motive, now own all of this. Capital allocation increasingly monopolized by an unelected bureaucracy with political goals has been tried before.
Without a profit motive, capital becomes increasingly political and unproductive. Central banks are destroying capitalism & the notion that democracy could rein them in is laughable. The only apolitical free market monetary alternative available to you is bitcoin. Deal with it!
This is why all complaints about Bitcoin speed or capacity are ridiculously short-sighted. Even at a tenth of its current speed & capacity bitcoin is still the only neutral monetary system available. Unlike government fiat, a free market for capital can be built on top of bitcoin
After a century of bloody failure, only an idiot could believe govt money can be apolitical. Gold is heavily controlled by govts. No altcoin can claim to be outside the control of the scammers who promote it.
There's only one neutral free market money in the planet: Bitcoin.
Bitcoin isn't "cool" or "awesome" new tech. It's an ugly contraption optimized to be neutral apolitical money, not for your user experience. It's not the toy you want, it's the medicine you need.
Like it or not, it's your best chance for living in a free market with sound money.
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More from @saifedean see all

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Play stupid games... win stupid prizes!
Two important lessons from this shitcoin's demise:
1- The price has barely budged, which shows that demand for these shitcoins has nothing to do with their function, security, or safety and is entirely driven by speculation on exchanges.
2- It took more than a day for ETC fans & promoters on Twitter to even realize this attack was happening after @pierre_rochard told them about it, because they couldn't find anyone who runs a node!
Read 3 tweets
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Bitcoin has now been operating for ten years without confirming a single fraudulent transaction, and without deviating from its original monetary issuance schedule.
Deal with it!
If Bitcoin continues operating for the next 30 years exactly as predictably as it has for the last 10, we'll only have ~20% more bitcoins in existence. Nobody has a clue how much more of government currencies there will be, but it'll be much more than today for those that survive
Unless you can stop bitcoin working (good luck!) or stop gov't inflation (good luck!) your thoughts & actions are irrelevant to economic reality imposing itself in the long run: harder money will hold value rewarding its holders, while easy money loses value punishing its holders
Read 4 tweets
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Anyone who believes proof of Stake can work is either:
1- completely clueless at to how and why Bitcoin works at all.
2- a con artist using it as a buzzword to promote a worthless scam like Ethereum.
Proof of Stake is no different than the Federal Reserve system, which is owned by its constituent banks, who have a monopoly on increasing the money supply you are forced use. It's the problem Bitcoin solves with proof of work by making money creation hard for everyone.
In a free market, productive people would choose the hard money over the proof of stake easy money. That's why central banking needs government force to protect its monopoly & why no shitcoin with PoS can survive without an army.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Might have to do a thread on the WSJ editorial page views on monetary policy through the years
April 2008 wsj.com/articles/SB120…
"As the Fed's open-market committee meets this week, what the world wants is a revival of American monetary leadership. It wants the Bernanke Fed to stop the global run on the dollar, and that means declaring an end to its rate-cutting mistake."
June 2008 wsj.com/articles/SB121…
"The Fed's dollar indifference has sent an inflation shock through those dollar-linked economies...The result has been the largest decline in America's global economic influence since the 1970s."
Read 47 tweets
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The Videogamization of our Markets was one of the most obvious signs of its Destruction.

While the Central Banks crushed Volatility, forcing original thinking into Submission, the Bots got smarter and the Game of earnings got more predictable...
Given that $21T+ of QE was sloshing through Markets a a unidirectional Bid, it became quite clear that markets would go up over time.

Passive money helped grease the wheels, so Company Management became quite adept at the Game:
1) Tell “The Street” what your “Guidance” is so they can set their Models. (Make sure to make this very simple so it can be programmed into basic Sell-side Excel models but also read by OCR engines in Programmed Bots).
2) Make this “Guidance” low enough to be “Beatable”.
Read 30 tweets
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1/
VOL CONTROL/VOL TARGETING

What that got to do with the markets right now?

Well, inverted $VIX has been lagging the #equity index’s and that is a big deal. The reason it is a big deal is because the of VOL TARGETING
2/
Volatility targeting/control strategies aim to control risk by BUYING $VIX as $SPX drops and liquidating $SPX as $VIX rises.

When $SPX makes new lows but $VIX does not the implication is these insurance products continue to buy #ES_F futures while sell $VIX
3/

So what so we have here? We have an entire sector that has built a model where a divergent $VIX = increased $SPX buying via #ES_F futures.

This strategy is roughly $1 tillion in notional and like $SKEW is showing, hopelessly underhedged vs a downside break
Read 10 tweets
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THREAD: As the 10th anniversary of the Crash looms, it's time to revisit the courage & leadership that Gordon Brown showed in the first few days of October 2008. Whatever your politics, or view of GB, he was the right man for the moment. Here's my memory of what happened. 1/16
When Gordon Brown returned from a holiday in Suffolk, gloom in global markets was snowballing into a full-blown crisis. The Government was not in great shape: the Tories had a 19-pt poll lead, Cameron was polling impressively, & there were calls from Labour MPs for GB to go. 2/16
As October began & the crisis worsened, the international response was all over the place. The US opted for TARP, a massive scheme to buy up toxic assets. Ireland & Greece opted to guarantee bank deposits. Europe was paralysed. The markets looked on in horror. As did Gordon. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
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So i promised to make a tweet about how i got into finance yesterday. So here goes.
Intro: I graduated from OAU with a 2:2 & a 2:1 from Law school (Lagos), served in a village in Cross River (nearly died, another story) and worked in a small law firm in Ugep during NYSC
So I already had a weak hand. Fresh from NYSC, I went to work in a law firm (litigation & property) in Oshogbo for 15k a month in Jan 2014. My spirit was low at that point. I left after 3 months. Partnered with a friend, mostly property law in rural/semi-urban areas
While doing that, i focused on getting into finance. At first I wanted to get into a corporate finance law firm like Detail, Aluko & Oyebode, Banwo & Ighodalo but i realized my chances of that were next to nil as i lived in Osogbo/Ibadan and had a weak record
Read 20 tweets
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THE #BOND #BUBBLE THAT ALREADY BURST

1. Once and for all, dispense with the notion that rising #InterestRates are a result of a growing #economy. Housing & industrial production is rolling over & retail sales are declining.

Rates are rising bc of INSOLVENCY & #CREDIT RISK.
2. In 2007, prior to the crisis, the following was true:

🔷 the average yield was 4.6%
🔷 the #deficit was 1% of #GDP
🔷 publicly traded #debt was ~ 5 trillion #dollars

Due to #ZIRP, if the 10 year goes to a meager 4.4%, bond investors will lose OVER 25% of their investment
3. In 2018-19, prior to the coming crisis, the following is true:

🔶 publicly traded debt is ~ 15 trillion dollars
🔶 the deficit will be 8.5% of GDP
🔶 so interest rates are going to the 🌝 🌟 💫

Unless of course the #CentralBanks reverse and buy everything up...
Read 9 tweets

Trending hashtags

#GDP #YouHaveMoreThanYouKnow #Sony #SubliminalPerception #HannahMontana #WhatTheyNeverTaughtYouInSchool #CL_F #AldousHuxley #Visa #transhumanism #aii #blockchain #CarlJung #Yuan #traitors #AbramovichSteel #smarticites #ES_F #Italy #smartcitiea #InterestRates #equities #Nascar #AlGore #MSM

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