Here’s how things might play out:
A) It’s not held at all: Theresa May could pull it at the last minute, eg by ordering a Minister to filibuster past the end time of the debate so there’s no time for the
C) TM loses: this is by far and away the most likely outcome. Only question mark is whether it’s a loss for the ages, or a relatively small defeat.
- TM resigns (leadership election)
- TM comes under Tory no confidence process by 48 letters of no confidence (leadership election)
- TM subject to personal
- Labour attempts no confidence vote in Government (2/3 majority needed)
- TM goes off to try and negotiate an improved version of her deal
- TM pivots towards no deal apocalypse Brexit
- TM calls for a People’s Vote to have a second crack at getting her deal through (what the other option or options would be is unclear)
- TM tries to form a Government of National Unity (but
- TM calls a GE (2/3 majority needed because of fixed term parliament but she’s almost certainly guaranteed it, unlike if it was Labour calling for it)
- Girded by a favourable ruling from the ECJ and mindful
- TM begs for an A50 extension to do one or more of the above
- Parliament exert control, and try to force a particular
If TM loses the vote fairly narrowly, then she will almost certainly have
Two more things to note:
- we get a
- if the vote goes ahead, it may result in a number of amendments being passed before the main meaningful vote.
TL/DR: buckle up & take a deep deep breath! This is rodeo horse on a rollercoaster level chaos. Anyone who claims to know exactly how the next 48 hours will play out is either deluded or lying.
Should be obvious already, but worth pointing out for the conspiracy theory-minded: it is impossible to engineer chaos THIS crazy on purpose. There’s no puppet-master behind the scenes pulling the strings of Brexit. Just flawed, scared MPs pulling in 101 directions.