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Edwin Hayward @uk_domain_names
, 13 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
So, we’re less than 48 hours from the Meaningful Vote on Brexit (probably)

Here’s how things might play out:
A) It’s not held at all: Theresa May could pull it at the last minute, eg by ordering a Minister to filibuster past the end time of the debate so there’s no time for the
vote. There are possible countermeasures, but basically if the Government throws everything and the kitchen sink at it, they’ll almost certainly find an arcane rule or work around or fiddle to stop the vote. They’ll annoy a LOT of people, but that will be least of their worries.
B) Theresa May wins: when we’ve all finished admiring the formation display by the flying pigs, TM’s Brexit moves a big step closer
C) TM loses: this is by far and away the most likely outcome. Only question mark is whether it’s a loss for the ages, or a relatively small defeat.
If TM loses by a huge margin, her deal is toast. Various things could then happen (in no particular order of probability):
- TM resigns (leadership election)
- TM comes under Tory no confidence process by 48 letters of no confidence (leadership election)
- TM subject to personal
no confidence attempt by Labour. If it passes it has no formal power but is super duper embarrassing and would probably force her to resign
- Labour attempts no confidence vote in Government (2/3 majority needed)
- TM goes off to try and negotiate an improved version of her deal
- TM pivots towards Norway+ soft Brexit
- TM pivots towards no deal apocalypse Brexit
- TM calls for a People’s Vote to have a second crack at getting her deal through (what the other option or options would be is unclear)
- TM tries to form a Government of National Unity (but
would Labour or other parties go along, or would they prefer a GE?)
- TM calls a GE (2/3 majority needed because of fixed term parliament but she’s almost certainly guaranteed it, unlike if it was Labour calling for it)
- Girded by a favourable ruling from the ECJ and mindful
of the extreme danger of no deal, TM rescinds A50 then resigns (making her simultaneously the most lauded and hated PM in history - she might take that!)
- TM begs for an A50 extension to do one or more of the above
- Parliament exert control, and try to force a particular
outcome (Norway+, People’s Vote, Remain etc.) - no guarantee it will work, and may depend hugely on who proposes what and how the other factions evaluate the risk/benefit vs a different course of action

If TM loses the vote fairly narrowly, then she will almost certainly have
another bash at negotiating with Brussels, then try for another vote, or inform Parliament that no more concessions were forthcoming. And we go round the loop and then end up with one of the outcomes above if the revised deal doesn’t pass.

Two more things to note:
- we get a
disastrous no deal Brexit by default on Brexit Day. So the closer we get to BD, the more the hardcore brexiters may try anything and everything to “run the clock down”
- if the vote goes ahead, it may result in a number of amendments being passed before the main meaningful vote.
These may shape the next stages of Brexit in various ways even if the main MV fails.

TL/DR: buckle up & take a deep deep breath! This is rodeo horse on a rollercoaster level chaos. Anyone who claims to know exactly how the next 48 hours will play out is either deluded or lying.
Parting note:
Should be obvious already, but worth pointing out for the conspiracy theory-minded: it is impossible to engineer chaos THIS crazy on purpose. There’s no puppet-master behind the scenes pulling the strings of Brexit. Just flawed, scared MPs pulling in 101 directions.
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