Thread by @tony_nog

1) Just a quick summary on why the vote of no confidence is important
- Labour Conference policy is to "call for a GE" then potentially call for a #PeoplesVote
- its not certain that a call for a PV follows a call for a GE but its what the members want

2) - the most likely way a GE can be called is via a successful Vote of No Confidence in the *government* (not the PM)

- its not a guarantee but its the most obvious route

- so to get to a #PeoplesVote Labour must try the VoNC first and if that fails move to the next stage

3)
- it is unlikely that a VoNC in the government will succeed, because the DUP hates Corbyn

- the DUP would almost certainly never vote against the Tories

- so a VoNC is really something to get past so that the Labour leadership can move, hopefully, to a #PeoplesVote

However

4) - despite the fact that a VoNC is unwinnable, the Labour leadership have moved from "we'll try for a GE, if we can't get one, all options are on the table" to "we won't trigger a VoNC unless we can win"

- this is an important difference

5) - if a VoNC is unwinnable, the Labour leadership will never submit it

- if they never submit it, they never fail to call a GE, and never move on to calling for a PV

- in effect this hamstrings, deliberately, Labour conference policy

6) - Many of us believe the Labour leadership do not want to follow party policy on a PV

- if the VoNC is called and failed, Labour leadership would have to come out for a PV and almost certainly for Remain

- Many of us believe that's the last thing they want

7) - the Labour Party has done nothing to bring forward the meaningful vote, its set for 3rd week in January

- Today's announcement was a threat of no confidence in the PM, not government, and was a stunt which was abandoned anyway

8) - at this point the Government are happy to let the clock tick down further till mid January

- The Labour Party seem prepared to let them

- we pushed for a VoNC not to bring down the government but to force Corbyn to the next stage, a PV

- he's resisting with all his might