Thread:
1. The main driver for global economic growth has been and will always be advancement in technology. The economic prosperity of 80s to 2000s was a result of information tech revolution (the internet, aka the third industrial revolution).
1. The main driver for global economic growth has been and will always be advancement in technology. The economic prosperity of 80s to 2000s was a result of information tech revolution (the internet, aka the third industrial revolution).
2. This info tech driver can no longer propel world economy after 38 years. Markets have become saturated; technologies sprung from the third industrial revolution are advancing only to provide marginal benifits. Your phones, computers from 2008 can get the same job done in 2018.
3. Without a real revolution in technolgy (the fourth industrial revolution), world economy will enter stagnation/decline. Governments around the world knew this. With no better option, they resorted to debt to keep economies from falling apart.
4. 2008 financial crisis was a "black swan" event. Even without the crisis, the eventual antidote to the threat of stagnation would be quantitative easing (money printing). Financial crisis sped up this process.
5. So much new money have entered the world economy over the past 10 years. Majority of these new money ended up in the Stock Market and Real Estate, some in #Bitcoin $BTC. These new money were like steriods to prolong the eventuality of a dying man.
6. That eventuality came in December 2018. US Feds can only print so much money before the debt bomb blows up. For this reason, the Feds kick started the cycle of rate increases. This acted as a pin to pop the 10 year bull market fed by the cheap money
7. That same cheap money was also the reason for #Bitcoin $BTC's grand show in 2017. Every market is correlated. Now that money is exiting the markets, fundamental for bull runs no longer exist
8. The scariest part is that, the world economy now has lost its sole driver (cheap money) that has kept it from falling apart. When technology can no longer propel growth, and debt is no longer an option, what lies ahead is a NO MAN'S LAND.
9. Economics impacts politics. With decline destined for 2019, I see major economies to become more isolationist, more nationalistic, and more confrontational. Europe will witness a grand rise in right wing nationalism, and rise in strongman rule.
10. So for your $crypto folks, no bitcoin bull run in foreseeable future. Also for you liberals, the liberal order is falling apart, whether you like it or not. The world is entering into a new age of multi-polar competition.
