2018 has been a rough year for the EU and they’re probably very happy to see the back of it. So in the spirit of wishing Jean-Claude, Donald & Guy a Happy New Year for 2019 I thought I’d write a little to-do list for them /1
#StateOfTheEUnion #Brexit
In Dec 17 the far right Freedom Party entered govt in coalition with OVP with a combined 58% (113 seats) of the vote. Austria became the only W. European country with a far right party in power. Combined they have 9/18 MEPs in @EUparliament & may get more in #EP2019 /2
The govt fell in Dec 18 on a vote of no confidence. Coalition wld not support the UN Migration Pact & a caretaker PM with limited powers is in place until May. Recent polling shows support is growing for anti-migrant Flemish separatist parties N-VA (30%) & VB (12%) /3
Agreed to support Macedonia’s accession to the EU when talks start in summer 2019. But be warned there are many historical issues around ethnicity, language, genealogy etc and the border. Bulgaria (and/or Greece) could easily veto the application. Watch this space /4
Conducting illegal deportation of migrants/refugees back to Bosnia, in clear breach of EU law. Many accusations of the police handing out severe beatings and stealing whatever money those being deported have on them. Lawlessness in some of the CEE states is increasing /5
Cyprus is operating a “Citizenship by Investment” scheme whereby Golden Passports are being sold to wealthy Russians, Saudis and Chinese giving them EU citizenship & free access to member states. Concerns within the EU a criminal element is entering thru the back door /6
Another Putin and China apologist. Communists in positions of influence again after 30 years. The PM has been censured by the EU for a conflict of interest whereby large amts of EU funds have been paid to his company, Agrofert /7
The far-right, anti-migrant DPP is the 2nd largest party in Denmark & is supporting the minority coalition. DPP has also been the largest Danish party in @EUParliament since 2014 & will look to increase the eurosceptic vote in #EP2019. See Estonia re Danske Bank /8
Potentially the largest money laundering operation ever seen in Europe is under investigation. The Estonian branch of Denmark’s largest bank (Danske Bank) is alleged to have laundered up to €200Billion including for Putin and his family /9
In a sign of how EU policy is damaging even normally uber-tolerant countries, a survey by the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights places Finland top of the league table for discrimination against people of African descent. Finland is a.k.a. The Land of Equality! /10
10 people killed during 6 weeks of Gilet Jaune protests. EU tanks on the streets. Concessions worth €15B made (approved by EU despite 133% debt vs GDP – a clear breach of EU rules). Macron’s approval rating is 20%. Look out for the National Rally at #EP2019 /11
Merkel is a lame duck. The AfD has 92 seats (12.6%) in the Bundestag & seats in 15 of 16 state parliaments. They only have 7 (7%) of Germany’s MEPS in @EUParliament and will be looking to improve on that in #EP2019 /12
Preparing a compensation claim of €300Billion for damages to the country under Nazi occupation between 1941-44. This will be handy in repaying bailout loans from the EU and in offsetting the current 180% debt to GDP ratio. EU rules must be obeyed after all /13
Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty triggered by @EUParliament due to multiple breaches of EU values. Orban, leader of far-right Fidesz, also accused of mis-using EU Economic Devt funds by enriching his family and friends. Not that he cares /14
Has no plans for a hard border after Brexit which removes one of the EU’s main negotiating tools. Also there are calls for a border poll. Where would Irish re-unification rank on the list of EU headaches? /15
5Star & Lega have 55% of seats in Italian Parliament but only 27% in @EUParliament. Having first rejected and then forced Italy to revise its budget (having taken no action against France) it can expect the coalition to increase the no. of MEPs returned in #EP2019 /16
Since the October election no govt has been in place as a coalition has not yet been formed. Harmony is the country’s largest party and is pro-Russia. It remains to be seen if they will be invited to form a coalition as talks continue in January /17
Trying its best to recreate the Icelandic banking crisis of 2008. Revolut has 3m customers (population 2.8m) and is promising protection via the EU’s European Deposit Insurance Scheme, which doesn’t yet exist. Value of trade volume is higher than country’s GDP /18
Introducing a scheme in summer 2019 where public transport is free to use for all. Apparently it’s to discourage Jean-Claude from driving himself when he comes home /19
Selling EU Citizenship/passports to anyone who invests €650k into its Country Devt Fund, purchases or leases a property and buys €150k of govt bonds. ANYONE. /20
Maintains its proud record of being the drugs capital of Europe and beyond. Supplies majority of Ecstasy and half of all Cocaine taken in Europe. /21
Another country on which Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty has been served, in this case due to concerns over judicial independence and rule of law. Far right, Law and Justice, is the ruling party with 38% of seats but only 28% in @EUParliament. Watch #EP2019 /21
With youth unemployment at 21%, Portugal is one of the EU’s largest exporters of people. 20% of Portuguese live outside the country. Debt to GDP ratio is also 126%, way above EU rules. /22
Another candidate for Article 7 due to concerns over weakening of rule of law. Trying to introduce an amnesty whereby up to 15,000 politicians would be exempt from prosecution for corruption. Holds the rotating EU presidency from 1st Jan 2019 /23
Accusations of corruption, embezzlement of EU funds and links to Italian organised crime. An investigative journalist was murdered in 2018 and was thought to have been a contract hit /24
Largest party in parliament is far-right SDS (25 of 90 seats) & only kept out of power by a coalition of 5 other parties. Closely linked to Orban in Hungary /25
Puidgemont, former President of Catalonia in exile in Belgium. 9 other officials on trial for rebellion, 4 of whom went on hunger strike. Yes this is SPAIN where fascism was supposed to have ended in 1975. Are you watching Scots? #indyref2 /26
No govt since September and coalition talks keep failing. Far-right Sweden Democrats could be king-maker but if no coalition formed in Jan another election will occur in April, 1 month before #EP2019 /27
Corruption Perceptions Index 2017 – 183 countries ranked (best to worst)
Montenegro - 64th
Serbia – 77th
Turkey – 81st
Kosovo – 85th
Albania/Bosnia - = 91st
Macedonia – 107th
/28
UK
The EU is becoming a mix of far-right or pro-russian countries (with more to come) & the UK is neither
We will be very happy to remove ourselves from your to-do list on 29/3/19 so it’s 17,410,742 goodbyes from us.
All the #Brexit best /29
PS sorry about our PM