Thread by @thebhlub

Joakim Gundel discuses the Somali context at the Danish Institute for International Studies @diisdk. Spoilers: the Farmajo @M_Farmaajo administration is corrupt, and making the security situation worse in #Somalia. Thread below

On the South West State crisis: Farmajo wants to control who is in power in federal states "the candidate Farmajo wanted to replace the sitting president didnt seem to actually be in a position to get enough support, in spite of political corruption and bribes." #Somalia

on Jubaland: Charcoal trade happens with the blessing of #Kenya and #AMISOM. Charcoal storage facilities are right in front of Kenyan forces in Kismayo.

On Elections: The political crisis in #Somalia has become chronic. "If the necessary laws are not in place by July 2019, there will not be an election in 2020... it does not look good at this point in time".

On corruption in #Somalia: "we saw how vast and major amount of revenue that is available in the port is not going through the financial management systems".

"Budget and finance committee of the parliament issued a report that 85M USD was missing form the current government's accounts. The response from government was that they dismissed the committee... it is a complete repeat of what happened in every single transitional government"

Joakim Gundel: All news of improvements in security of Mogadishu is a public relations exercise. The security situation under @M_Farmaajo worse and changing character.

"When I was in the region this summer, I met with certain members of the upper house of parliament. Several of them raised concerns with me that the President @M_Farmaajo and Prime Minister @SomaliPM have their own independent intelligence services and assassination squads" !!

On security: "The notion of building a Somali army is deeply problematic" there is a stark contrast in the actual process of building a national force between #Somaliland and #Somalia.

The @M_Farmaajo administration has caused #Somalia to be involved in the inter-Arab rivalry in the Gulf which has exacerbated the major problems with political corruption.

- "When @M_Farmaajo came to power was characterised as a strong #Ethiopian opponent ... this has changed completely, he is know completely collaborating with Ethiopia"

- This push by Farmajo will lead to more authoritarianism, or "another round of civil war in #Somalia."

The talk in full