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With some hesitancy, let us try to take stock of Brexit and where we are likely to go in the next week. Starting, as is traditional on a Saturday, with the weekly @tconnellyRTE missive to remind us they are watching bemused in Brussels 1/
Right now there is zero incentive for the EU to do anything but issue the most banal of reassurances, because who knows what will happen in Parliament. Maybe just maybe they could do something more, as @pmdfoster explored, but the clock...
So back to the UK, and if there is a meaningful vote this week the PM is going to lose big (at least 175) unless rather a lot of MPs change their public statements judging by the counts being maintained here - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… (h/t @MrRohrer) 3/
There may not end up being such a meaningful vote however, as amendments are allowed, and depending on which are called and voted for may change the substance of the actual vote. Which is confusing. More from IfG... 4/ instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…
Either way though the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement will not pass Parliament this week. So what then. One of the more thoughtful Conservative analysts of Brexit and the Cabinet, @JGForsyth sees two options - back to Brussels, or to Corbyn... 5/ thesun.co.uk/news/8176191/b…
The first option, which would seem to me the most likely, is that the PM uses the need to lay out next steps (Grieve amendment) to say she will return to Brussels and seek better reassurances or specific changes 6/
The problem is that the PM has close to zero credibility in Brussels, and having chosen to personally lead negotiations, nobody else to turn to. It will be the same responses, backstop stays, and we'll only give you more if you have a majority 7/
We can probably discount the PM going for no-deal, there simply aren't the numbers however much some in the Conservative Party keep pushing for this, and this is the only situation where one could see the PM losing a vote of no-confidence. 8/
It is equally unlikely that the PM will go for another referendum - and @adampayne26 has a number of stories / tweets this morning that without Corbyn, that campaign does not have the numbers 9/
(It is worth pausing here to think about the hardline Brexiteers, who at times make the PM look quite competent in comparison. What if they backed a referendum on condition no-deal was included? Game changer? Unlikely though) 10/
If no-deal, People's Vote, and no-confidence have no majority, there may, contrary to popular view, be a majority for a soft Brexit. But there are two forms, Customs Union and EEA, and virtually no time to reconcile an outcome 11/
Does the PM try to work with MPs, possibly using indicative votes, to get towards an outcome the majority could support? There are many MPs already discussing potential solutions, but it again doesn't seem in keeping with what we know of the PM 12/
Much in theory could happen, the PM could resign, a government of national unity be formed, and so on. Such is the nature of the times that it would be unwise to completely rule out such outcomes. But still unlikely 13/
There is another important timing issue - there must be a point soon when Brexit legislation simply cannot be completed by end March. In this situation we ask for an extension, but until when? Could we have to consider revoking A50? 14/
Everything we know of the PM's approach to date is that a defeat will be followed by a statement that she is returning to Brussels to tell them what Parliament has said. They know of course, so as an exercise in futility this could hardly be bettered 15/
We're back to there being no single easy and realistic solution to our Brexit problem. The PM admitting this and agreeing to work with Parliament on next steps would be the best outcome from the week. But a final answer will remain elusive. 16/ end
PS Another view that the EU could move if there was a consensus in London. If we could only move from the widespread view spread by a particularly inept former DexEU SoS that no-deal planning will convince the EU to unilaterally move...
