Thread by @HenryNewman

On Tuesday @theresa_may will lose the vote, badly. Then what?

She'll make a statement that night & has 3 sitting days to introduce new motion. There are then 7 days to amend it

Thread on what comes next 👇

Subtitle - Brexit risks being killed by those who claim to ❤️ it most

2/ I don't think that we are close to a majority in favour of a second referendum. Luckily

Jeremy Corbyn remains luke warm & remain-backing Tories such as @NickyMorgan01 @nickherbertmp etc are still opposed

Many Labour MPs are in favour but far from all of them

3/ What about a Permanent Customs Union? This gets closer to Labour's policy (although without the control over trade deals 🦄 bit).

Last year an amendment on a customs union was *just* defeated with some err mistakes over pairing helping the Government.

4/ There have been new resignations since then - from @JoJohnsonUK & @SamGyimah for example. So the Government's critics on the softer Brexit side of the Tory party *might* be larger than back in July

5/ On other hand as a matter of policy substance (as far as these things actually matter 🤔) the Backstop provides a customs union which can only be exited by joint UK & EU agreement

So might some Tory rebels who previously backed Customs Union think deal already provides that?

6/ It's unclear

But what is certain is the more ERG reject PM's deal, the more likely it is she tacks towards softer not harder Brexit

Why? Because ultimately Brussels will take a softer exit within this withdrawal deal - eg customs union - but going much harder is impossible

7/ And because if hardline Eurosceptics are implacably opposed what is May supposed to do?

She will be determined to find the votes somewhere for her deal as she doesn't seem to want No Deal

7/ What about Norway plus? Despite the snazzy 2.0 re-brand this option remains deeply flawed

It would leave UK in a much worse position than the backstop & weaken our negotiating hand

I've explored this previously but basically it's far from the panacea it is often presented as

8/ There might have been a majority for this at some point but the plan has evolved so much from @NickBoles's original idea (to now include accepting backstop, then trying to negotiate something called Common Market 2.0 which sounds lovely but as yet doesn't exist).

🍰 anyone?

8/ Also Norway is weakened by 2nd Referendum lot smelling blood & thinking they can get there

This means SNP, Libs etc more interested in so-called People's Vote than Norway

Eg @joannaccherry is strongly opposed

@vincecable sounded v cool on Norway on Marr. He wants 2nd Ref

9/ What about blocking No Deal?

To my mind it is profoundly irresponsible for MPs to block spending & planning for No Deal

Nonetheless as I suggested back on Tuesday, & Sunday Times splashed on today, MPs are determined to bend rules to block No Deal👇

https://twitter.com/henrynewman/status/1082644595668865029?s=21

10/ It seems probable that there's a big majority to block No Deal

It also seems likely - as @ShippersUnbound reports - that Bercow wants to help with this.

So they may well find a route.

11/ So No Deal could well be taken off the table in the next few days

But I doubt there's yet a majority for anything else - stopping Brexit for example

So we come back to May's deal

12/ And by then we can expect some language from EU on the backstop - see @BBCkatyaadler thread earlier

https://twitter.com/bbckatyaadler/status/1084464083620032514?s=21

13/ It doesn't seem that @jeremycorbyn is going to bring forward a confidence vote in the Government (but of course he could).

If he did, she would win it.

So a General seems unlikely - even if she loses by the biggest margin in history

14/ But then we are back to what next - and the danger with Parliament "taking back control" (a bizarre abuse of the premise of what VoteLeave actually was arguing for!) - is that a majority could coalesce around something that just isn't possible:

A unicorn 🦄

15/ So by the end of next week will there still be the same options as now?

✖️No Deal
✖️A version of May's Deal
✖️No Brexit

Perhaps

But No Deal might be gone which could, as they say, focus minds

16/ And there's another risk to which Brexiteer & ERG MPs should wake up.

Extending Article 50

@Keir_Starmer is in favour and doubtless other parties and Tory rebels could be found to support him

This is a bad idea. It's also not clear why the EU would agree to it

17/ The EU would probably agree a short extension to complete ratification - but they probably wouldn't do that unless the meaningful vote had passed

Nonetheless Parliament may find a way to force her to demand it - and who knows where that would leave us, certainly worse off

18/ Downing St will be pleased that a few people are coming round to deal

But so far it's a handful at most

Can they persuade more to abstain rather than vote against?

And might some who do vote against on Tuesday be persuaded to come round later,having registered disapproval?

19/ The problem for the PM is that this isn't actually that much about policy anymore. It's personal too.

She has totally lost the trust of hard-line Eurosceptic wing of her party and there are a group of big beasts swimming around there with their 👀 on a future leadership race

20/ As someone put it to me, what some MPs are more interested in is ensuring @theresa_may stands down after Article 50

As they see it someone else can then take over & restart negotiations (they are aware Commission/Council are out of action until autumn with Euro elections)

21/21 Might that have to be the kitchen sink May has to throw down to get this deal through her party?

It's not enough in itself but added to reassurances on backstop, perhaps it could work

Let's see