She'll make a statement that night & has 3 sitting days to introduce new motion. There are then 7 days to amend it
Thread on what comes next 👇
Subtitle - Brexit risks being killed by those who claim to ❤️ it most
Last year an amendment on a customs union was *just* defeated with some err mistakes over pairing helping the Government.
So might some Tory rebels who previously backed Customs Union think deal already provides that?
But what is certain is the more ERG reject PM's deal, the more likely it is she tacks towards softer not harder Brexit
Why? Because ultimately Brussels will take a softer exit within this withdrawal deal - eg customs union - but going much harder is impossible
She will be determined to find the votes somewhere for her deal as she doesn't seem to want No Deal
It would leave UK in a much worse position than the backstop & weaken our negotiating hand
I've explored this previously but basically it's far from the panacea it is often presented as
To my mind it is profoundly irresponsible for MPs to block spending & planning for No Deal
Nonetheless as I suggested back on Tuesday, & Sunday Times splashed on today, MPs are determined to bend rules to block No Deal👇
It also seems likely - as @ShippersUnbound reports - that Bercow wants to help with this.
So they may well find a route.
But I doubt there's yet a majority for anything else - stopping Brexit for example
So we come back to May's deal
If he did, she would win it.
So a General seems unlikely - even if she loses by the biggest margin in history
A unicorn 🦄
✖️A version of May's Deal
But No Deal might be gone which could, as they say, focus minds
Extending Article 50
@Keir_Starmer is in favour and doubtless other parties and Tory rebels could be found to support him
This is a bad idea. It's also not clear why the EU would agree to it
Nonetheless Parliament may find a way to force her to demand it - and who knows where that would leave us, certainly worse off
But so far it's a handful at most
Can they persuade more to abstain rather than vote against?
And might some who do vote against on Tuesday be persuaded to come round later,having registered disapproval?
She has totally lost the trust of hard-line Eurosceptic wing of her party and there are a group of big beasts swimming around there with their 👀 on a future leadership race
As they see it someone else can then take over & restart negotiations (they are aware Commission/Council are out of action until autumn with Euro elections)
It's not enough in itself but added to reassurances on backstop, perhaps it could work