Thread by @LibertyBlitz

1/ Quick thread on yesterday's post titled: "Can You Time Crazy?"

The piece is based on a conversation I had with a friend who was a PM at a very large hedge fund back in February 2015. He sent me an article about how Nestle bonds had started trading at a negative yield.

2/ Of course, the idea of negative yields was nuts and it was at that moment I knew it could get much, much crazier before it all ended. I sent him a response back. Here's the relevant part:

3/ I wrote:

"Once you enter certifiably 'crazy' territory it becomes almost impossible to bet against crazy until it is obvious it is all unraveling. Once in crazy territory it can easily get more crazy since crazy has already been established."

4/ This was 3 years after Draghi infamously said he'd do "whatever it takes," and it would indeed get crazier. Much, much crazier. By the next summer, we saw headlines talking about how $13.4 trillion of bonds were trading at a negative yield.
ft.com/content/973b60…

5/ And then all sorts of markets would keep going and inflating, and we still had the great FAANG bubble ahead of us. Once again proving that you can't time crazy. Once people have accepted crazy, it merely means it almost certainly will get crazier.

6/ It's liberating to realize this because then you can admit you have no clue and neither does anyone else. It frees you knowing you might be wrong every single time you do something, because no one can perfectly time when crazy will end.

7/ Also, and this is important. I would argue the current cycle has been and may continue to be the most deadly one of them all. This is because it's for all the marbles. The central banks and others manipulating assets treat markets these days as if they are in a state of war.

8/ These people, who pledge to do "whatever it takes," are willing to unleash social chaos across the world in the name of saving asset prices and banker bonuses from dropping. This is why the last 10 years have played out as they have. It's a game for the future of the world.

9/ Never underestimate how crazy these people are. The only upshot is that they'll so completely destroy the credibility of this current paradigm it will have nowhere to go but away for good. And what comes next will be very, very different. This process is already well underway.

10/ This is why I've said for a while, it may not be until 2025 that the old system is completely gone and a new one starts to emerge and become solidified. You only get one transition of this magnitude in a lifetime and we are entering that final resolution period now until 2025

11/ Anyway, here's the post if you want to read it and good luck.
libertyblitzkrieg.com/2019/01/14/can…