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ooj
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THREAD: If you're worried Corbyn conceded too much too soon to PV by tabling a motion to request an indicative vote on whether Parliament would support a 2nd ref, please consider this:
So labconf motion compelled him to not rule it out, but not to endorse it. 1/
There likely isn't a majority for PV in parliament, so once that has been voted on and failed, then the PV argument is over. Their constant wails could then be ignored and JC could argue he has fulfilled his duty to give PV a chance, then its full steam ahead for a GE via VoNC 2/
After the PV virus has officially been eradicated via a failed vote in the commons, they will have no reason to continue to sabotage. My guess & hope is that JC will whip to support Labours brexit strategy of a CU, but give a free vote on PV whilst voicing concern over it. 3/
All of these votes wil just be indicative, so it will still ultimately be the PMs decision whether to rip up democracy & hold a do-over, but by tabling this motion, JC has preempted his neolib faction by owning & controlling the way a PV is suggested to the house. 4/
If he hadn't, no doubt some1 else would & their wording would've been more unequivical in supportin PV & explicitly include remain as an option. This is the line JC must draw in the sand. If he's not able to totally ignore PV cos of conf motion, he can oppose remain as option 5/
Labconf18 motion did not include remain as an option so he is not bound to endorse such a democracy-feltching idea. JC has to balance on a tightrope here. He needs to keep his party together long enough to inflict maximum damage on the tories. 6/
He would not have had the historic victories he's had so far if he'd lost 70-odd MPs, it is preferential to his gameplan to keep them onside as far as possible, even tho they will try to undermine him at every turn. Already we're seeing PV pivot to criticise Labs brexit plan 7/
After gettin what they begged for, they've instantly moved to pick apart Labs CU plan. But their objection is easily exposed as a sham & a tactic - the indicative vote would not be on whether they think Brussels will accept it but on whether THEY would support it... 8/
... If that deal came to the house. That could only happen AFTER Brussels had already accepted it. So it would be a theoretical vote on an already negotiated & accepted plan, not on a suggestion of how to negotiate. This is a crucial point to grok right now, b4 the spin starts 9/
So by setting PV up to fail, as it surely would in parliament, corbyn could be neutering their efforts to undermine brexit. The one thing he has to avoid at all costs is a delay of any decision past Labconf19, where the danger is delegates could harden support for remain 10/
JC may never have this much control again, so its wise to own PV in a way that he can try to limit its reach. This motion fulfils his commitment to conf whilst not endorsing it as a way forward. To get this far he's had to balance a neolib PLP & miraculously its worked.. 11/
Ideally he needs to prevent a wave of resignations. 1 of the main parties is gonna split over brexit if there is a resolution before March 29th, he has to make sure Tories break first. He had to out maneuver a majority hostile parliament. His preference would probably be WTO 12/
... but if he'd advocated that, he'd have been finished. By finding a middle lane he's played to what can feasibly command a majority in the house & that is the ONLY way he has a chance of forcing a GE. If tories vote against his CU plan even tho most agree they're exposed 13/
PV will not show the same courtesy by conceding that his CU plan is a sensible compromise that would, but for party politics, easily command a majority. So JC must now say no mas, he's honoured his conf commitment, now it's time to get serious. PV is antidemocratic 14/
There was no other way for JC to get this far & please every1. Lab is a broad church & has always been a coalition. Crucially, JC is a committed democrat, conf compelled him to do this much, but no more. By fulfilling his obligation in this way he is now freed up... 15/
... to then dismiss PV after it is voted down (which it surely will be) in this non binding motion. Then its full steam ahead for a GE. After parliament has rejected PV, & if it rejects a CU even tho there's clearly a maj for it, then a VoNC becomes much more powerful. 16/
JC has been entirely consistent. He's bound by party democracy in a way May isn't. The tories don't bestoy policy making power to their members, labour does & that is a good thing on balance. But on this point he's had to find a way of honouring PV without letting it pollute 17/
I hope my faith is not misplaced, but the careful wording of the motion & everything JC has done up to this point corroborates this theory. He knows very well that a 2nd ref could finish lab at the polls, so he's had to find a way of neutering it before labconf19. 18/
Of course the press will spin, the right wing press will say he now supports PV, tho he doesn't & this motion does not, the fake left msm have already switched to undermine labs CU plan. Be ready for the spin. JC knows what he's doing. I'm double sure. 19/
RT if u agree. #Lexit
The fact that chuka et al have instantly come out & said this is not enough and that they won't support it must surely be the clearest indication that Corbyn knows exactly what he's doing and that this motion is nothing for true socialists to fear. 20/
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