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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE #FBIR
@fascinatorfun
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Why isn’t LP telling its members this? In 54 Lab Leave areas

If it fails to support a PV just opposing May’s Brexit, its lead falls to 2%, losing 14 of the seats. If Labour does a u-turn & backs the deal, its lead falls to 4% and it loses 10 of the seats represent-us.uk
You have to be a pretty determinedly selfish Leader to oppose the pathway most likely to garner voter support even in Leave voting constituencies and entirely against Labour Members’ express wishes.

“I don’t care what YOU want” attitude. “I will do what I want”.
Vote loser
This is just bizarre. Given they were only polling in 54 out of 635 constituencies the polling sample size of 1500 is pretty large.

Then think of the LP Remain areas, if this is the result in Leave areas?

LP Members.
Why do YOU think Corbyn and Co are getting away with this?
The full results by constituency are here.

Full results here with tables.

Fieldwork 2 - 13 Nov. We now know how unpopular May’s deal really is...and also seen the acceleration of Business relocation.

drive.google.com/open?id=1pjLRz…
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More from @fascinatorfun see all

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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE #FBIR
@fascinatorfun
⁦@peterjukes⁩ ⁦@carolecadwalla⁩ ⁦@brexit_sham⁩

I’d overlooked the significant of this re Banks & Wigmore
Date-Jan 2016

“insurers will need enough capital to have 99.5% confidence they could cope with the worst expected losses over a yr ft.com/content/51bc0c…
Is there a way of identifying Eldon & Go Skippy’s exposure on this?

Their capacity to prove sufficient capital resources given ( See next tweet) he was expressed “worry”/dislike about it during this video clip of the Leave EU campaign from his Insurance Offices.
Here is the clip.

Read 5 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE #FBIR
@fascinatorfun
Stone arrested re the Trump Wikki Leaks issue & witness tampering.
Assange and the location -Ecuadorian Embassy- in London in the frame

Stone, a colleague of Manafort also has met Farage.

Farage (also seem at the Ecuadorian Embassy) is a mate of Malloch cnbc.com/2019/01/25/us-…
Some more background linking Malloch to the Trump campaign and the leaks, suggested that Farage could be a useful “back door” for the campaign.

Farage wrote the afterword for one of Malloch’s books.

theguardian.com/us-news/2018/n…
3/. We know that Farage visited the Ecuadorian Embassy, because he was spotted coming out and we can be pretty sure that the Mueller Inquiry will have plenty of details of who visited the embassy and when.

theguardian.com/politics/2017/…
Read 18 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE #FBIR
@fascinatorfun
View from Washington on the GFA and Brexit.

The Quitters forget how dear this is to the hearts of Americans and the calm, determined, patient and resilient part their George Mitchell made in helping it to fruition.

Madness.
For those who want to read a little more about his part.

mediate.com/articles/corry…
It is easy to forget what deep tentacles and connections there are between Ireland and the USA.

So the motion signed by Brady et al will go down like a lead balloon. And the Americans ARE watching.

Another massive diplomatic faux pax and own goal on our part
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Let's talk about a new, straight forward kind of politics
Let's look back at what Corbyn has done, and more importantly not done, over the past few weeks on #Brexit & a #PeoplesVote
Sneak peak: it definitely wasn't "for the many"
2) Firstly, it was an open secret that Corbyn & all other party leaders knew that a Vote of No Confidence was *never, ever* going to succeed.

Every Tory MP would vote for May (as they did) and the DUP was never going to vote for "United Ireland" Corbyn
Whole thing was a farce
3) so all the talk, by multiple Labour Front benchers on "timing" & "not playing games" when it came to the VoNC was either a deliberate lie or gullibility.

The timing made no difference because the chances of May losing it were vanishingly small
Read 15 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Again, at such a key moment in UK and at such high political levels, evidence of deep misunderstanding of EU: The PM is under pressure in some quarters to delay #Brexit vote to allow her first to “improve” deal in Brussels BUT EU is determined not to budge at this stage
2) All EU leaders watching tomorrow’s vote. Of course they want to avoid a no deal #Brexit BUT they feel the deal - so painfully negotiated between EU and UK - is too fresh to re-open. Clarifications, yes but fundamental renegotiations, no.
3) The EU’s international reputation as a tough deal-maker is at stake here too. If Brussels now suddenly “gives in” to U.K. on EU red lines (eg backstop) then that would weaken the EU’s reputation in future trade negotiations with other non EU countries
Read 6 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Was determined to back off Labour & Corbyn this week & support them going forward on #Brexit

But now this, following Corbyn's speech.

Corbyn's team want Brexit. They don't want to listen to the members on a #PeoplesVote & now it's been raised, they are switching position
2) let's just look at the chronology
I) Starmer (but no one else in Leadership) talks occasionally over last 2 years about "exact same benefits" 6 tests
ii) privately, @BarryGardiner describes them as nonsense
@BarryGardiner 3) iii) in run up to conference, probably because they know there is a huge influx of CLP motions asking for an early vote, Corbyn & others start talking about the 6 tests really for the first time.
Read 13 tweets
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Jack D 🌹| #GTTO | ✋🏽
@JackDunc1
#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) That #Brexit election conundrum
Thread
By all accounts Rees Mogg is making his bid for Tory Leadership, which in turn may lead to yet another GE.
But this next GE, as things stand, will likely lead to another hung parliament because of #Brexit
2) that's because each party is polling roughly 42% and remain/leave is still roughly split 50-50
But both parties have leavers & remainers as supporting voters.

Maintaining the current status quo ("our Brexit is better than their Brexit") will lead to a similar GE outcome
3) nothing will have changed particularly (other than perhaps it being clearer that Labour "accepts" Brexit) so there's no reason to assume 30 seats will shift either way.

Labour will be no more attractive to Tory voters than they were last year and the same goes for Tory party
Read 7 tweets
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Rachel Heyburn #FBPE #WeAreTheOppositionNow
@Rachel5742
1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets

Trending hashtags

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