Thread by @PollsAndVotes

Has Trump’s push for a border wall increased support for one? Let’s look at the data.

The first polls go back to 1993 (earlier that I recalled.)

A wall was unpopular then. But in 2006 & 2010 support & opposition were about equal w support higher in some polls.

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Here are those early poll data, for the inordinately curious. 2/

Frequent polls on a wall begin in 2015 following Trump’s entry into the presidential race in June 2015.

At first, support & opposition are close to equal into early 2016. As the primary contest continues, and Trump emerges as the nominee, support drops & opposition rises. 3/

Across a variety of pollsters since mid-2016 opposition has been greater than support in every poll on the topic

Support is consistently in the upper 30s to low 40s while oppo has held in the 50s to low 60s

But there has been a slight trend up in support & down in opposition 4/

Also, note that the three latest polls, conducted during the shutdown, show a small bounce up in support and down in opposition, to 42, 40 & 39% support and 53, 58 & 56% opposition in the 3 samples taken by ABC, Pew & CNN during the shutdown. 5/

The trend is easier to see if we look at net support minus opposition-Always negative (more opposition than support) since Jan 2016, the trend falls during 2016 but then trends slowly but steadily up through the present

A wall remains unpopular but not as much as in Jan 2017

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What has changed since 2016? Using individual level data from ABC/Wasington Post polls from the archives at @RoperCenter we can check views by partisanship, which are also available from WaPo for the Jan 2019 data (Thx!)

GOP support spikes up w shutdown... 7/

GOP support has moved up since the 1st ABC/WP poll in Sept 2016, but the sharp rise comes between Jan ’18 poll & Jan ‘19

The president has succeeded in rallying his fellow partisans, well beyond what he achieved in 2016, 2017 & 2018. In the GOP a solid majority favor the wall 8/

Independents remain solidly opposed, but here too there is a bit of a decline in strong opposition and a smaller rise in strong support over the past year.

Among Democrats a slight decline in strong opposition and rise in weaker opposition, but no change in support.
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Note that support for the wall has been 10 or more points higher than support for the shutdown over the issue of the wall, which has been polling in the 20s to low 30s.

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So if we attribute all the change here to the power of the president to persuade, then he has succeed in convincing his rank and file partisans to support building a wall. GOP Senators & Representatives face that party base when the go home. It constrains them.

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But the balance of opinion remains solidly opposed, despite a modest move among independents. Democratic Senators & Representatives go home to both partisans and independents happy with them opposing a wall, and and a bright general election outlook (Yes, districts may vary)

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Here is a #link2data for the polling trends. Individual level data is available from @RoperCenter

dropbox.com/s/pwz8qx9v4ng9…

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