Thread by @TeslaCharts

1/ When Elon settled fraud charges with the SEC over the 420 tweet, one of the things they made him do was promise to never commit fraud again. How’d he do on the Jan 30 earnings call? Find out for yourself in this thread. But first, read my disclosures. $TSLA

2/ Here is the key “I won’t commit fraud again” pledge from the SEC settlement. Seems plain enough. Do not be a serial, knowing liar about material facts any more, ok? $TSLA

3/ One could argue that there is nothing more material to the $TLSA story today than demand. What is the true demand of the Model 3 and S/X? The answer to this question could determine the very solvency of the company.

4/ Before we judge Elon’s performance on the call, let’s have a look at the current state of demand. We begin in the US. As @InsideEVs confirmed, demand for the Model 3 in January has collapsed. This was known to Elon ahead of the 1/30 call. $TSLA

5/ Next we move to Europe, where the excellent and comprehensive work of @fly4dat confirms that the entire pent up demand for the high-value Model 3s (AWD and P) is about four weeks of production. This was known to Elon ahead of the 1/30 call. $TSLA

6/ The Netherlands was $TSLA’s largest European market in 2018 but, with the recent expiration of subsidies, demand for all EVs has collapsed, including for Models S/X. Comically so. This was known to Elon ahead of the 1/30 call.

7/ What about China? What about it indeed. Credible $TSLAQ research, confirmed by the highly regarded consulting company JL Warren, pegs total demand for the Model 3 at less than 2k. This was known by Elon ahead of the 1/30 call. H/T @markbspiegel @Trumpery45

8/ It seems pretty clear that the exponential growth story for $TSLA is over. Want more proof? Inventory is piling up all over the US. See tslaq.org for more detailed information. H/T to @ravenvanderrave for this representative collage.

9/ So now let’s move to the Jan 30 call. Right out of the gate, unprompted, Elon says ‘we expect the exponential to continue’ and issues guidance of 50% vehicle unit growth. Faster than the Model T! $TSLA

10/ In case it wasn’t clear enough, he reiterates it moments later. $TSLA

11/ No worries though, because once we get all our factories up and running, we will achieve the next level – half a million per year. I mean, why produce them if you don’t intend to deliver them, amirite? $TSLA

12/ Now it is time to really step the exaggeration up to the next level. Like crazy insane next level. The Model 3 alone is a 700-800k a year platform! For reals bros! $TSLA

13/ The normally flaccid Colin Rusch tries to do his part to bring the conversation back to reality by asking about geographic dispersion for 2019 guidance, which Elon again bumps up relative to the shareholder letter. $TSLA

14/ Next Colin Langan follows up on the new numbers, 700k-800k, and Elon begins to back pedal a little bit. Remember, he knows the January numbers and has a good idea of February as well. $TSLA

15/ Yet another question on demand. Clearly the analysts think Elon is full of it. He is starting to get defensive now. $TSLA

16/ Now to my favorite part of the call. David Tamberrino from Goldman, knowing much more than he lets on in his initial question, sets the trap for Elon… $TSLA

17/ The prosecutor follows up, which just a bit more detail. “Yes, absolutely.”
Seems pretty definitive.

18/ And now the final blow. Tell us about all that pent up demand in the form of reservations, Elon? Reservations don’t matter!!! Focus on 700k-800k!!! Got it. $TSLA

19/ One final thought. It is clear from his performance on Jan 30 that THIS statement is 100% true. Trade carefully. $TSLA