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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
BREXIT PREDICTION THREAD: 1/ #BREXIT
2/ Mrs May will not be able to get the backstop removed from the WA. She will however get some additional promises and clarifications from the EU.
3/ This will not be enough to satisfy the DUP (what would be?) but many MPs, worried about impending no-deal brexit, will vote in favour of Mrs May's deal.
4/ but when we do leave the eu, then the battle for Brexit really begins. The ERG will swing behind WTO/no deal, while Labour will get behind their version of Norway+ by another name and David Davis will pursue his Canada+ Unicorn
5/ The battle for Britain is yet to begin. /End
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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
Funny you should mention 'change or go'. Since it mentions using efta/EEA as at least a stopgap, and says Norway🇳🇴 option has been deliberately misrepresented! [Cont]
2/
3/ here you go - in black and white. Cc: @JamesERothwell @AdrianYalland @adamfleming /end
Read 3 tweets
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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
1/ Let's play a game of WHAT IF?. Let's imagine the EU referendum had gone the other way, and remained just edged a win. What would have happened?
2/ Farage et al would have complained about remain tactics and the 9 million point leaflet. They would crucially have said the narrowness of the vote mandates a 'this far, no further'🛑 approach to the EU - no euro, no Schengen, no EU army.
3/ Tory backbenchers would now be saying that the vote must be respected, but there can be no further move towards integration.
Read 5 tweets
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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
1/ So we were looking at the FTA that Switzerland🇨🇭has signed with China. And it contains an interesting element...
2/ By virtue of this agreement (As we understand it) Liechtenstein pop 37,810 now has a fta with China pop 1.386 billion! And since Iceland has also signed a FTA with China, thats three out of the four EFTA states that have a fta with China
3/ This got us thinking. If the UK does manage to replicate the EU's 3rd party FTAs in the transition period, and the UK and EU tacked on a line in their future FTAs about NI being part of their customs territory, wouldn't that go a long way?
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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David Carretta
@davcarretta
#Brexit: Theresa May presenta le alternative dopo che il governo ha dato il suo consenso all'accordo con l'Ue.

1) Il mio accordo
2) Brexit senza accordo
3) Nessuna Brexit

Tutto come previsto.
May: l'intesa del governo è un "passo decisivo che ci permette di andare avanti e finalizzare l'accordo" con l'Ue -> abbiamo rischiato grosso

"E' una decisione che è fermamente nell'interesse nazionale" -> caos no-deal

Ci sono "di fronte giorni difficili" -> Camera dei Comuni
NIgel Farage: il peggior accordo della storia. Tutti i ministri Brexiteers si dimettano subito
Read 12 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Some very breathless reporting/reading of @MichelBarnier remarks y'day. So what is happening on #Brexit? Some thoughts on talking with both sides. 1/Thread
@MichelBarnier First Barnier. To be clear, it was absolutely orthodox. We respect UK red lines, but within those limits will give UK broadest ever FTA and Association Agreement. It's EXACTLY what he said on Aug 2 OpEd: "unprecedented in scope and depth." /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/new…
@MichelBarnier So why all the huffing and puffing, the sudden optimism about EU willingness and desire to cut a deal?

Well first, it's important to focus on what that 'deal' is in Oct/Nov - it's the withdrawal agreement.

Money. Citizens. Northern Ireland backstop. NOT Chequers. /2
Read 18 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Olly Robbins is in Brussels today for more #Brexit talks.

Top of the agenda is the 'insoluble' Irish backstop issue - but how 'insoluble' it really? Is there a way through?

Maybe. Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, the problem, real quick.

EU needs 'backstop' that works in all eventualities, including a breakdown in future relationship talks at the end of transition.

With no border in Ireland, there "must" logically be checks between NI and GB to protect single market. /2
The problem is that puts a *customs* border in the Irish Sea, and the UK government cannot live with that, since it splits up UK.

Theresa May was very hard over on this point in her speech in Belfast. Barnier's Task Force 50 blanched last week when they saw how hard over. /3
Read 22 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The Chequers plan is dying. May faces rebellion on both sides. She can survive, but not proceed. So what happens next? Some thoughts after chats with both sides.

(Shorter: it's still all about the Irish backstop)

1/Thread
As talks get under way in Brussels today, the EU can:

a) attack - eviscerate Chequers for cherry picking

b) parry - play for time, probe UK real red lines

c) focus on what is deliverable to conclude Withdrawal Agreement in Autumn /2

More here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It is the last of these where smart money lies. Chequers is dying anyway and is a 'future relationship issue'.

The focus is delivering a divorce treaty by 29.03.19 and for this most of work is done.

Except the backstop.... /3
Read 18 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
5 slides on the #Brexit #Backstop for Northern Ireland/Ireland from @DPhinnemore and me.

1. Why there will be a Backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement.
Plus a synopsis of the EU and UK positions on the matter.

(Thread 1/6)
2. What is already agreed (green), agreed in principle (yellow), and not agreed (white) in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland in the draft EU Withdrawal Agreement.
ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
2/6
3. What has been offered in writing from the UK government on this Backstop (Protocol).
Ref. the Technical Note on Temporary Customs Arrangements published today.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3/6
Read 7 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

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