Thread by @bbaschuk

Here's a (non-exhaustive) look at the parade of horribles Britain could face if it reverts to trade on @wto terms

bloom.bg/2E6c3qO

@business

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@wto @business Hardline Brexiteers want to leave the EU customs union and single market and trade on @wto terms.

They argue the advantages of a hard and fast break would enable the UK to regain control of its laws and strike new trade agreements with the US and other nations.

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@wto @business In fact, Britain would face severe disruptions if it exits the EU customs union and single market w/o an agreement for an orderly withdrawal.

As the legendary @DmitryOpines says -- a "no-deal" Brexit would be like “downshifting a car at full speed from fifth gear to first.”

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@wto @business @DmitryOpines Here's a look at the UK's @wto trade profile:
bit.ly/2S0ZQrm

Note: The UK currently exports 47.7 percent of its goods and 37 percent of its services to the EU.

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@wto @business @DmitryOpines Under @wto terms British goods would no longer benefit from frictionless and tariff-free treatment in the EU.

Tariffs on UK exports to the EU would differ for various products, but the EU’s average tariff rate is 3 percent.

Here's a full breakdown: bit.ly/2Dx9CvZ

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@wto @business @DmitryOpines As for services, a no-deal scenario would reduce the amount of cross-border services that UK companies provide to European markets and could lead to companies moving their services out of the UK and into the EU.
[insert services image]

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@wto @business @DmitryOpines EU goods going to the UK may face new import controls and tariffs equivalent to the EU’s @wto commitments.

@LiamFox has suggested that the UK could unilaterally scrap its tariffs on EU goods but that would expose sensitive sectors, like agriculture, to more competition.

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@wto @business @DmitryOpines @LiamFox FTAs:
There's doubt as to whether the UK can roll over the EU's trade agreements by March 29 and trade barriers to key export partners like Japan, Canada and South Korea could increase sharply.

Here is a list of the EU's current trade deals: bit.ly/2Buv0BS

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@wto @business @DmitryOpines @LiamFox The uncertainty is unnerving some businesses who are stockpiling goods like medicine, car parts, printing ink and booze.

The U.K. farm group @NFUtweets warned that delays stemming from new border inspections could be have a “catastrophic” impact on British agriculture.

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@wto @business @DmitryOpines @LiamFox @NFUtweets Finally -- Article 24 of the GATT.
Brexiteers say this provision offers a panacea to avoid no-deal complication.

But it won't.
The UK can't unilaterally invoke it, @wto members can reject it and it's intended for countries forging a trade accord, not unraveling one.

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@wto @business @DmitryOpines @LiamFox @NFUtweets For more reading on the Article 24 issue here's the text of the provision: bit.ly/2GDrmJm

In addition, I strongly suggest reading the excellent works of trade experts like @CoppetainPU, @IanDunt, @AllieRenison, and @DmitryOpines.

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