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Was already thinking of sticking my neck out on this, but have been galvanised by @rafaelbehr column today - I do not believe the Tory party will split, and I think there's a very strong chance that Labour won't either (at least, not substantially)
Raf argues (theguardian.com/commentisfree/…) that both are inevitable. But the most striking thing from the no confidence vote & Brady amendment & Malthouse compromise is how desperate 90%+ of the parliamentary Tory party are to come together
There is also - and here I differ from @JGForsyth - a convincing/consensus Tory vision that has a voting base attached. Pro Brexit, but not isolationist. Restrict low skill immigration but not high. Cut taxes, but prioritise the working poor. Support business. Build houses.
If you turn to Labour, the really striking thing is how much it appears to take for the centrists/moderates to finally depart. They still see it as 'their party' - even though it has been inexorably taken over by some of the worst people and worst ideas in British politics
As @DPJHodges has said, it's hard to imagine what greater provocation they need - throwing the Brexit referendum, ditching People's Vote, anti-semitism, deselection, you name it
People often say that tribal loyalties are dead. But they're not dead within the parties. And of course they're entrenched by the FPTP system.
In conclusion, I will bet @rafaelbehr the princely sum of £20 that the Tories don't split - or that the number of parliamentary defectors is in the single figures. And likewise, though with far less confidence and no monetary commitment, re Labour.
