Thread by @bcshaffer

I don’t like to get all hyperbolic, throwing around the word “game-changer” too often… but holy crap! Solar in Canada for 4.8 cents (3.6 US)?!? This *is* a Game Changer. #ableg #absolar

renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2019/…

To put this in perspective, I offer the following tweets…

1/ Last year I did some analysis for CanSIA on the relative value of wind and solar in Alberta. An issue with AB’s REP is that it does a great job of procuring lowest *cost* resources, but doesn’t distinguish differences in *value*

cansia.ca/uploads/7/2/5/…

2/ Why do wind & solar have different values? In short, because they produce power at different times. Wind tends to blow in the evening and tends not to correlate well with peak demand (see this week). Solar also struggles in winter but its daily pattern better matches demand.

3/ Quick aside: people often note AB is a winter peaking system, discounting solar as a result. This is true. Today. But new research by @riversnic and I shows how climate change will shift demand in the future. In short, more peaky and more summer-y.

blakeshaffer.ca/publication/cl…

4/ We can put a $ value on these shapes by multiplying hourly gen x hourly price. On average, wind facilities receive about a 25% *discount* to the simple average market price (this varies by location and by year) whereas solar receives roughly a 50% *premium* due its shape.

5/ What does this mean? We can compare $40 wind from recent REP rounds to $48 solar announced today. In short, $48 solar is a far better deal.

To receive same net payoff, wind would have to be ~$25 to match $48 solar due to the different prices they capture in the market.

6/ This of course will change. If AB gets flooded with wind farms, the wind discount will increase; same goes for solar (see Cali). Transmission & storage can alleviate these discounts, as can more geographical dispersion (to some degree)

6/ This is GOOD news for decarbonizing the grid at low cost. Gone are the days renewables can be decried as expensive. It remains the case that their energy is variable. Managing intermittency from this cheap and clean supply of raw energy is where attention must now turn <fin>