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Yawning gulf apparent between what’s being briefed/hinted/expected by No10 (a revised Brexit deal in the offing possibly ready for HoC to vote on early next week) and EU reality (Barnier still talking about ‘worrying political impasse’) 1
Ahead of PM’s visit to Brussels today, @JunckerEU said he expected no breakthrough but that is polite-speak compared to what I’m hearing behind the scenes 2
If PM looking for legally-binding assurances that backstop not a trap/permanent EU/UK solution. Ie If PM thinks legally-binding version of January Juncker/Tusk letter would be enough to get the deal through Parliament then EU diplomats say could draw that up ‘anytime, 24/7’ 3
But few if any believe that would suffice for all ERG plus DUP to vote yes to deal next week.. So if the PM still wants backstop ‘assurances’ to include a unilateral exit mechanism/fixed immovable end date then she will meet an EU wall 4
This is because backstop is also a fall-back mechanism to protect EU’s single market after Brexit. However much EU leaders want to avoid a no deal Brexit, leaving exposed a 500 km gap (length of border on island of Ireland) is thought to be far more costly to EU in long term 5
Idea in Westminster that EU will ‘blink in the end’ rather than face no deal Brexit is right in that EU more flexible than has indicated BUT wrong if MPs imagine EU will abandon/fundamentally weaken backstop bc EU believes that will be more costly to them than a no deal Brexit 6
Current EU-UK impasse (still) comes down to EU offering legally-binding clarifications/assurances on backstop or ways to avoid triggering backstop altogether -eg UK agreeing to permanent customs union - and No10 saying those ideas won’t fly in HoC 7
Little has changed since the launch of the ‘new round of EU-UK talks’. EU officials believe any breakthrough - if found- will materialise next month 8
If no breakthrough by late March, EU will grant extension, insisting, they say, that UK takes part in May elections to European Parliament. EU says will use extension to ensure bloc protects itself as best as can from impact of no deal Brexit if no progress with UK is made 9
EU pointing to mounting no deal preparations, Michel Barnier touring EU capitals insisting on EU unity even as talks with UK go down to wire, is, of course, fighting talk but I am struck by increasing sense in EU that no deal Brexit is manageable, even if clearly undesirable 10
To be clear: there’s a growing sense in EU that, as time goes by, and they increase damage-limitation preparations, that a no deal Brexit is manageable, if highly undesirable for EU, while still very damaging to UK 11
