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Irrespective of how MPs vote this afternoon it’s EU leaders who have final say on an extension to the Brexit process. Will they/won’t they say yes? How long for + how punitive will conditions be? Like so many things to do with #Brexit the answer is: we don’t know for sure yet 1
French, Dutch, Spanish and Irish leaders have been talking tough this week: They won’t grant an extension unless the Prime Minister comes up with a very good reason, they say. It’s true: Eu leaders are frustrated, irritated and fatigued by the Brexit process BUT 2
EU leaders also have two specific audiences in mind these days when they take to the cameras on Brexit i) UK MPs whom the EU wishes to help pressure into voting for Theresa May’s negotiated deal or something else realistic and /3
ii) EU citizens about to cast their ballot in the upcoming elections for the European parliament. The EU’s intended message to them: We’re tough on those who mess with our club. So don’t vote for nationalists like Marine Le Pen! /4
EU leaders’ decision on an extension must be unanimous by law. We can’t be certain what they’ll conclude until they are locked in a room together at next week’s EU summit. Realpolitik is likely to win the day though /5
Tough talk aside, EU leaders want to avoid a no deal Brexit in their own economic + political interest. So longer-term extension or shorter (if PM can show she’s close to parliament approving her deal) EU leaders will probably say yes to an extension – if through gritted teeth /6
