Thread by @AhmedAbdihadi

Do we have new broker for Somali politics? Now, it’s understood a meeting between Muse Bihi-Somaliland president and Faramajo- the president of Federal government in the south will take place in Addis Ababa tomorrow. See the thread? #Somalia

Ethiopia with leadership of late prime minister Males Zanwe, successfully managed to neutralize the menace from Somali anarchy by combination of military campaigns and patron client relationships. #Somalia

In the military and intelligence engagement, it managed to keep at bay all radical threats including foot invasion, suicide, and assassin squads to infiltrate to Ethiopia. Perhaps to get the sense of statement compare with other neighbor Kenya. #Somalia

In the soft side, Males mastered how to manipulate on his own advantage, using the motivation theory of stick and carrot, the Somali clan leaders and warlords in the south. In Somaliland and Puntland he devised a different strategy. #Somalia

Now, obviously, the arrival of Abiy Ahmed did not only change the landscape of the nucleus but also the peripherals are impacted, too. #Somalia

The previous Ethiopian policy statement towards Somalia, understandably, was: Somali has multiple stakeholders and players and for the interest of Ethiopia state we shall work all of them.

Abiy Ahmed presumably opted out that policy statement. Inferences include the mistreatment of Somali regional Federal state leaders who previously enjoyed unlimited access to Addis Ababa.

Somali president Farmajo in public talk disclosed this reality. “We have closed the source of canal” meaning regional leaders no longer have access to Addis Ababa. #Somalia vs #Somaliland

Now, to come to the point, the expected meeting between the two Somali leaders tomorrow in Addis Ababa may explore questions like the special arrangement of Somaliland which Farmajo government in the south reversed.

Somaliland enjoyed special treatment from International donors and the UN called “special arrangement of Somaliland” Farmajo government opposed that arrangement and since it has legal status among the international community its opposition could yield negative result fr Somlind.

Presumably, because Somaliland has big trade relationship with Ethiopia, lobbyist pressured Abiy Ahmed to persuade President Farmajo to let Somaliland have their “special arrangement” until other things are addressed.

Turkey who already won the hearts and the minds of Somali population in the South recently appointed new envoy to Somali-somaliland negotiations which freezed in 2015.

For the average Somali, Turkey appears more genuine and sincere friend to meditate between Somalis (Somaliland vs Somalia) but technically, Abiy Ahmed has more sticks and carrots to persuade Farmjo which way to go and that is what looms large here.
#Somali vs Somaliland.

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