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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
If TIG become a new party, its going to be v interesting watching a party reputation, and partisan attachments, evolve in real time. Will voters be influenced by TIG members' past views and votes? Or see the new group as a blank slate?
Will the Con or Lab past identities of the new party leader/leading figures influence how voters see them, and if so for how long? What choices, policies, slogans, symbols will shape what the voters see the party as standing for? Which will fall flat?
What role will the other parties play in shaping how the newcomer is seen? What role will the media play? How quickly will identification with the new party form, if it forms at all?
Might all be moot if the new grouping never coalesces into a new party, or if it fades away quickly when it does. But *if not* then it is going be fascinating to watch how it evolves.
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Given how central Gavin Shuker was in launch of TIG, according to the excellent reports from @stephenkb & others, we may want to add Margaret Moran's taxpayer funded seaside home redecoration to Eric Joyce's barfights in the list of seemingly petty events with large consequences
@stephenkb Moran's was one of the biggest stories in the 2009 expenses scandal - she submitted more than £50k in expenses claims, including tens of thousands to redecorate a seaside home she claimed as her second home (it was in Southampton, she was MP for Luton South)
@stephenkb Shuker was selected by the local party to replace Moran. If she had been a little less free with the expenses, then he wouldn't have been elected to the Commons.
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
They did - but they also rendered hundreds of thousands of Kenyan Asians stateless by unilaterally revoking their citizenship rights - an outrage orders of magnitude larger than any committed by current Con governments (and largely forgotten now)
The Race Relations Acts were in part to appease liberal left types outraged by the treatment of Kenyan Asians - many of whom were left stateless for nearly 50 years thereafter (until, IIRC, Brown govt finally restored their British citizenship)
OTOH, and more in sympathy with @PolProfSteve - it was also a Labour government which passed probably the most liberal piece of citizenship legislation passed by any Western govt - the 1948 British Nationality Act.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Key differences IMO between current political context and political context in early 1980s:
1. Partisan attachment to traditional parties much lower now
2. EU referendum has created new forms of partisanship - Leave and Remain - which are v strong on many measures
3. The demographic groups attracted by SDP type liberal-leftism (assuming that's where TIG ends up) - graduates, social liberals, cosmopolitans, middle class professionals - are much larger now than they were in the early 1980s.
OTOH, the electoral system is still a *very* strong barrier, and negative partisanship - "have to vote Labour to get the Tories out" - is at least as strong, if not stronger, now than it was in early 1980s.
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