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Key differences IMO between current political context and political context in early 1980s:
1. Partisan attachment to traditional parties much lower now
2. EU referendum has created new forms of partisanship - Leave and Remain - which are v strong on many measures
1. Partisan attachment to traditional parties much lower now
2. EU referendum has created new forms of partisanship - Leave and Remain - which are v strong on many measures
3. The demographic groups attracted by SDP type liberal-leftism (assuming that's where TIG ends up) - graduates, social liberals, cosmopolitans, middle class professionals - are much larger now than they were in the early 1980s.
OTOH, the electoral system is still a *very* strong barrier, and negative partisanship - "have to vote Labour to get the Tories out" - is at least as strong, if not stronger, now than it was in early 1980s.
I can see a socially liberal, pro-EU party being at least competitive in some currently Labour seats with high concentrations of graduates, strong remain partisans etc. Hard to see them winning more broadly *but* (as with UKIP earlier) biggest influence could be indirect
If the most remain leaning 10% of a local electorate switches to this new party on an expressive basis (i.e. without caring whether they win), how does that alter the local balance of power? Complicated Q with very variable answers I suspect.
