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If impeachment of President Trump is to succeed, it must seem like a natural, inevitable response to a convergence of significant events, evidence, & narratives.
Impeachment cannot seem forced or partisan.
The time-line of the Watergate scandal is informative.
Thread 1/9
Impeachment cannot seem forced or partisan.
The time-line of the Watergate scandal is informative.
Thread 1/9
On June 17, 1972, the Watergate break-in occurred and Nixon's cover-up ensued.
Despite steadily accumulating evidence of presidential misconduct, the House did not quickly initiate impeachment proceedings.
Despite steadily accumulating evidence of presidential misconduct, the House did not quickly initiate impeachment proceedings.
Instead, about a year later on May 17, 1973, the bipartisan Senate Watergate Committee began conducting its hearings.
Note that the Senate doesn't have the power to bring articles of impeachment, so the Watergate Committee hearings were about fact-finding, not impeachment.
Note that the Senate doesn't have the power to bring articles of impeachment, so the Watergate Committee hearings were about fact-finding, not impeachment.
It isn't until nearly two years after the Watergate break-in that, on May 9, 1974, the House Judiciary Committee finally began conducting hearings to determine if articles of impeachment against Nixon should be filed.
By this time, the Saturday Night Massacre had occurred & clear, coherent narratives had formed with regards to Nixon's misconduct.
The next significant event-on July 24, 1974, SCOTUS handed down a decision ruling that Nixon had to turn over the tapes to the special prosecutor.
The next significant event-on July 24, 1974, SCOTUS handed down a decision ruling that Nixon had to turn over the tapes to the special prosecutor.
That decision was pivotal. A few days later, the House Judiciary Committee passed articles of impeachment against Nixon.
After GOP senators told Nixon that there were votes to convict in the Senate, Nixon was convinced to resign on Aug 9, 1974.
After GOP senators told Nixon that there were votes to convict in the Senate, Nixon was convinced to resign on Aug 9, 1974.
Bottom-line, it took a steady accumulation of evidence and game-changing events to occur before the House officially started impeachment proceedings.
And it passed articles of impeachment when it was clear that conviction in the Senate was highly probable.
And it passed articles of impeachment when it was clear that conviction in the Senate was highly probable.
With respect to Trump, if the House were to pass articles of impeachment right now, acquittal in the Senate is a near certainty.
If he were to be acquitted, that could actually validate Trump's claims that the investigations are all just a partisan witch hunt against him.
If he were to be acquitted, that could actually validate Trump's claims that the investigations are all just a partisan witch hunt against him.
Unless there's a groundswell of bipartisan support for impeachment, it's best to hold off.
Let the House and Mueller conduct their investigations outside of the impeachment process, then go from there.
History counsels patience.
END
Let the House and Mueller conduct their investigations outside of the impeachment process, then go from there.
History counsels patience.
END
