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Welcome to 2019 where the investment thesis of the year is, wait for it:
Kicking 🥫🏃♂️ the can down the road:
a) Trade-war deadline, extended, again;
b) Brexit, likely extended (deadline of Article 50 extended);
c) Fed rate hikes, extended;
d) China deleveraging, extended;
👌
Kicking 🥫🏃♂️ the can down the road:
a) Trade-war deadline, extended, again;
b) Brexit, likely extended (deadline of Article 50 extended);
c) Fed rate hikes, extended;
d) China deleveraging, extended;
👌
Word of the year: EXTENDED 🤑
Things not looking good! (Ramble on China debt, UK crashing out of the European Union, slow growth in the Euro-zone, Japan & increasingly Asia, weak growth in EM, rising geopolitical tensions, the US paralysis on policy to fix basic issues)
Dude, haven't u heard of extension?👌
Dude, haven't u heard of extension?👌
Look, extended is totally happening. Look at this! AUD rallying on EXTENSION!
Q: What's happening markets today?
A: Totally extended man! Rallying! 👌
Q: What's happening markets today?
A: Totally extended man! Rallying! 👌
This thesis is all encompassing. Watch.
Q: Wut's happening in equities?
A: Extended!!!
🤗
Look at ytd global equity performance in USD.
Q: Wut's happening in equities?
A: Extended!!!
🤗
Look at ytd global equity performance in USD.
Watch extension working its magic #China :
Shanghai composite index up 17% ytd. Yep, pretty good for just 3 months of investing. You could spend all your time analyzing details of China easing so far (fiscal, monetary, sectoral-specific research, etc) or u can be:
EXTENDED!🙌🤑
Shanghai composite index up 17% ytd. Yep, pretty good for just 3 months of investing. You could spend all your time analyzing details of China easing so far (fiscal, monetary, sectoral-specific research, etc) or u can be:
EXTENDED!🙌🤑
Watch me do this for FX, namely emerging markets vs USD:
EXTENDED!!! 💪💪💪💪💪💪💪💪
EXTENDED!!! 💪💪💪💪💪💪💪💪
Btw, this works inversely as well.
Question: Why are markets down?
Answer: Extended fatigue. Too extended...
😉👌
Question: Why are markets down?
Answer: Extended fatigue. Too extended...
😉👌
Then ramble on why it's down:
China debt, UK crashing out of the European Union, slow growth in the Euro-zone, Japan & increasingly Asia, weak growth in EM, rising geopolitical tensions, the US paralysis on policy to fix basic issues...
That's global markets in a nutshell 👌
China debt, UK crashing out of the European Union, slow growth in the Euro-zone, Japan & increasingly Asia, weak growth in EM, rising geopolitical tensions, the US paralysis on policy to fix basic issues...
That's global markets in a nutshell 👌
Extended trade in full gear in #China - Shanghai Composite up +5.6% (yes, intraday move, no big deal)
Q: How many times since 2010?
A: 4 times, 3 times in 2015 & today.
Q: How many times does it drop -5%
A: 23 times
23 days of >-5% & four days of >+5%
🇨🇳👌😬
Q: How many times since 2010?
A: 4 times, 3 times in 2015 & today.
Q: How many times does it drop -5%
A: 23 times
23 days of >-5% & four days of >+5%
🇨🇳👌😬
China since 2010 - it's one of the most volatile markets in the world w/ more intraday move of >-5% than most.
Meaning, everyday when you trade, have higher hit ratio of >-5% (23 times) than +>5% (three times in 2015 when the build up of the bubble occurred).
Today's special!
Meaning, everyday when you trade, have higher hit ratio of >-5% (23 times) than +>5% (three times in 2015 when the build up of the bubble occurred).
Today's special!
Another day, another "extended trade", we're TOO EXTENDED today...😬
Why? China debt, UK crashing out of the European Union, slow growth in the Euro-zone, Japan & increasingly Asia, weak growth in EM, rising geopolitical tensions, the US paralysis on policy to fix basic issues..
Why? China debt, UK crashing out of the European Union, slow growth in the Euro-zone, Japan & increasingly Asia, weak growth in EM, rising geopolitical tensions, the US paralysis on policy to fix basic issues..
