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A depressing thread: Today's Brexit news has come as a bit of a shock. I was confidently predicting that the Cooper/Letwin amendment would pass tomorrow; now it looks as though it might not even be tabled. 1/11
Why? Because TM has announced three days of drama in mid-March. First on the deal (let's assume that falls). Next on no deal (let's assume that falls). And last on a short extension (to the end of May). 2/11
The most troubling aspect has been the way the statement has been received. It is presented as a great climbdown; a big concession that Brexit may be delayed. The ERG look sombre. And Tory remainers welcome TM's move. 3/11
What people seem not to realise, is that it is not the asking for an extension which matters, it is use to which any extension may be put. That is important, first because extension is in the gift of the EU-27, and they want to see a path forward. 4/11
Second, the length matters. If the extension last to end May or June, the UK will in all probability not participate in the EP elections. And if it doesn't, any extra extension, or indeed revocation, becomes very difficult (how eg will UK MEPs be elected?). 5/11
And third, what is the extension to be for? A short extension allows little more than time for more talk about the Malthouse Compromise, protocols on the backstop, and changes to the non-legally binding PD. 6/11
A longer extension would bring other options - a general election and a second referendum - into play. 7/11
Even if the PM loses the vote on her deal, and MPs reject no deal... if they vote for her extension plan, they will effectively be narrowing the options to her deal and no deal (albeit that Parliament will have just rejected both). 8/11
The Cooper/Letwin amendment provides a real opportunity to shift the dynamic, and to enable Parliament to wrest a measure of control from TM. It allows for an extension which would eg allow a GE or a PV to happen. 9/11
If Parliament allows TM to have her way tomorrow, they will have allowed her (not that anyone seems to be noticing) effectively to take the PV and remain off the table. 10/11
And all this is presented as though it is a significant Brexit retreat by TM. And warmly received by Tory remainers (Harrington, Boles etc). It's profoundly depressing. 11/11
I should have added thanks to @IanDunt for helping to put me in such a depressed mood, and to see all this more clearly.
