,
14 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
The key unanswered question, for all MPs, is what they will do if they cannot get their preferred version of Brexit through Parliament. It is the question which will determine the way the next weeks will play out. Thread. 1/
We know, or think we know, what the various Plan A's are: the WA, the Malthouse Compromise, the permanent customs union 'with a say', Norway plus. The chances of this Parliament agreeing to any of them look slim. 2/
They represent very different versions of Brexit. They are dimly understood by many voters. And there is no more than a veneer of compromise, esp from TM and JC. 3/
So... it is very likely that no Party or faction will succeed in achieving their 'best' Brexit. Then what? There are a number of possibilities. And a lot of imponderables. 4/
The default is no deal. The threat of no deal may induce real compromise. But... it is, despite TM's attempts to frame things in this way, simply not the case that the only choice is the choice between a (for many 'bad') deal and no deal. 5/
The UK could revoke the A50 notice. Or, it could seek an extension of the A50 period; in order, for example, to have a GE, a people's vote, or to allow more time for negotiation with the EU (so as to obtain a 'better' deal). 6/
Any extension requires the unanimous agreement of the EU-27. The UK may ask for one, but it is by no means guaranteed that it will obtain one. It rather depends on whether the UK can show the EU that it has a clear path to a solution. 7/
In some ways, it is understandable that MPs are focused on their Plan A's. Even that they do not want to disclose their Plan B's. But unless a majority can coalesce around something, we will have a no deal Brexit on March 29. 8/
There has been no progress since December. And there are less than 40 days to go. The lack of urgency is staggering; given that there is no sign of a deal which can pass through Parliament (with even TM appearing to disown the current WA by backing the Brady amendment). 9/
There is no clear majority to extend A50, still less any consensus around the framing of any extension request. Still less, any sense that MPs are prepared to contemplate revoking A50. 10/
We are, very swiftly, heading towards no deal. Every day there is growing evidence of the damage which no deal will bring (and which the prospect of no deal is already bringing). 11/
A (large) majority of MPs is against no deal. A (large) majority of MPs is against any concrete deal. There is no version of Brexit which commands sufficient support. 12/
Rationally (ht @davidallengreen), that should prompt calls to revoke the A50 notice, prompting a public debate on the UK's relationship with the EU and the wider world (of the sort which we should have had since 2016). 13/
Instead, MPs are sticking to Plan A. And the clock keeps ticking. 14/14
