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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit talks, another update:
Things are moving "minute to minute" acc to one source. Still contacts between both sides, and the Strasbourg meeting is by no means confirmed.
The discussions over the weekend were only at technical level (ie Olly Robbins and @WeyandSabine), and Robbins had to brief ministers on Sunday. The main action seems to be around a text on the Joint Interpretative Statement on "best endeavours" etc...
...and on a "unilateral" UK statement on the backstop. This latter statement seems to be a very sensitive issue. It may be unilateral, but unlikely the EU will agree to a Strasbourg choreography tonight if they think the UK statement is radically off beam.
"The nature of a UK unilateral statement sounds very troublesome – we’d want to make sure that is all ok from our situation" says one source.
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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
EU sources say splitting the WA from the Political Declaration for tomorrow's vote is "not an issue". The letter from Tusk-Juncker in January stressing the solemn link between the two was "to reassure the Brits."
The Political Declaration has been adopted by EU27 leaders, that informs the decision that both the EP and the HoC have to take on the actual treaty and its ratification. In other words, the EP is only asked to give its consent on the WA, but taking into a/c the Political Decl
If the UK decides to do the same thing we have no issue with it, EU sources say.
Read 10 tweets
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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Worth noting: Page 2 of the EUCO draft conclusions warns there can be "no opening of the WA... Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act should be compatible with the letter and spirit of the WA."
I'm told this is a direct reference to Theresa May's letter to Tusk in which she signals her intention to "bring forward further domestic proposals that confirm my previous commitment to protect our internal market given the concerns expressed about the backstop."
In other words, the European Council draft warns May that any promises to the DUP must not undercut the backstop.
Read 3 tweets
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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Quick thoughts on the idea of Article 62 of the Vienna convention allowing for the termination of the backstop if there is a “fundamental change of circumstances” (as per the advice the ERG want Geoffrey Cox to deliver).
According legal experts, the “fundamental change” has to have been “unforeseen” when the treaty was signed. If Cox is predicting the UK might invoke this, then it’s hardly unforeseen.
A case often cited is the decision by Slovakia & Hungary to use Article 62 to walk away from a 1970s era treaty between Hungary and Czechoslovakia on the operation of a dam on the Danube.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So seems point 1 is an extension/elucidation of what @DLidington told #r4today on Dec 14.

FWIW am told by Brussels sources this is now focus of UK 'ask' on reassurances/ clarifications. To set clear aspiration date for trade deal to avoid backstop /1

@DLidington Which as @DavidHenigUK quickly pointed out is, to put it mildly, ambitious. /2

@DLidington @DavidHenigUK This is not least because even if you think a 'quick and dirty' deal is doable on some aspects (you hear some discussion of this) the UK would STILL need to know what it wanted.

And as the Political Declaration makes painfully clear, it doesn't know. Or cannot agree rather. /3
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
After last weekend's #Brexit deal, two think-tanks have now come up with costs/estimates....but what do the REALLY mean. My latest here. 1/QUICK THREAD

With @NIESRorg
@jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@NIESRorg @jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU The reports come up with estimates for an FTA, and an organised 'no deal'.

Both skip costs of 'choatic' no deal as too unpredictable to model /2
@NIESRorg @jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU So what does that mean. Well spectrum of costs is fall in GDP per capita of £600-£1700 a year....that's a lot (output of Wales or the City in aggregate....BUT...not the catastrophe some Remainers would depict. /3
Read 7 tweets
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carol hedges
@carolJhedges
I am becoming more sure as every twist of the #Brexit knife happens, that the same mindset that was behind Hitler's policies in Nazi Germany are being subtly or will be openly enacted here upon a #nodealbrexit
Let me unpick this .....
Right from the start of the campaign ~ generated to keep Cameron in power and stave off the 'bastards' sic.Major on the right/UKIP, pure racism was allowed and encouraged in the press. A subtle game was played whereby legit EU citizens were turned into 'illegal migrants. #brexit
Outright lies of Leave.EU and Voteleave were never publically opposed by any MPs ~ and indeed, the *crimes* committed by both organisations are not being investigated by the police,nor Govt declared the ref null & void on what has been uncovered by @carolecadwalla
Read 14 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
#Brexit as a concept is increasingly drifting from having anything whatsoever to do with the mechanics of leaving the EU. It is now primarily a culture war and both sides will totally ignore the details except for when they are temporarily convenient.
The consequence of this is that our future relationship with the EU will be just as readily ignored as our activities as a member. They said Brexit would make us isolated, self absorbed and insular but it seems that was always the case and there are no signs of that changing.
As ever the details will be delegated to officials and civil servants while our establishment politics drifts further into its cycle of decline, unable to usefully influence external events making us entirely passive and reactive to events rather than self-interestedly engaged.
Read 17 tweets

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