Thread by @pmdfoster

After last weekend's #Brexit deal, two think-tanks have now come up with costs/estimates....but what do the REALLY mean. My latest here. 1/QUICK THREAD

With @NIESRorg
@jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

@NIESRorg @jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU The reports come up with estimates for an FTA, and an organised 'no deal'.

Both skip costs of 'choatic' no deal as too unpredictable to model /2

@NIESRorg @jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU So what does that mean. Well spectrum of costs is fall in GDP per capita of £600-£1700 a year....that's a lot (output of Wales or the City in aggregate....BUT...not the catastrophe some Remainers would depict. /3

@NIESRorg @jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU As @jdportes tells me, these forecasts actually show that the “sky will not fall but it will become significantly darker” - we’re talking about a prolonged drag on growth, not a fall off a cliff.

What about other ways of thinking about what these numbers mean? /4

@NIESRorg @jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU So here's a selection....the 'hole' could be about £20bn, equivalent to a 3.5% VAT hike.

Or if the 2008 Financial crisis cost £300bn (IFS) these estimates put Brexit at £40bn-£110bn /5

@NIESRorg @jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU What's the point of all this....well, BOTH sides are killing debate.

Brexiteers who speak wildly of sunny uplands

Remainer/moaners who say we'll all be living the forest

Which is NOT to diminish cost of #Brexit. BUT to say lets have proper discussion on trade-offs. /6

@NIESRorg @jdportes @anandMenon1 @UKandEU And on that point, read this fat para from the Niesr report - total offset of these costs from FTAs with Anglosphere and BRIICS *combined* is 0.2%

Food for thought. 7/ENDS