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THREAD on China & the potential designation of Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a terrorist by the UNSC's 1267 committee. France, UK, US proposed the listing again after the Pulwama attack. Deadline for response is tomorrow. 1/
China has blocked the designation of JeM's Masood Azhar in the past for its ally Pakistan. Re the current proposal, keep in mind that Beijing does not have to vote *for* the listing. It just has to refrain from objecting to it. 2/
Will China let the Azhar designation go through? Its foreign minstry spox has been noncommittal, reiterating its past position re the cmte (see img). That's not definitive one way or the other. Keep in mind that China has let Pakistan-based terrorists be designated in the past 3/ 
Before 2008 Mumbai attacks, China had blocked US/other efforts to sanction Pak-based Jamaat-ud-Dawa & JuD/LeT chief Hafiz Saeed at UNSC.
After the attacks, it lifted its hold. (but in 2015, it blocked Indian efforts to investigate how 1 of those designated Lakhvi got bail) 4/
After the attacks, it lifted its hold. (but in 2015, it blocked Indian efforts to investigate how 1 of those designated Lakhvi got bail) 4/
Past experience suggests that these factors will drive the Chinese decision:
1. Nature/extent of China-Pak rel
2. Chinese interests w/ India
3. US & other efforts to persuade/shame it
4. Perceived reputational costs 5/
1. Nature/extent of China-Pak rel
2. Chinese interests w/ India
3. US & other efforts to persuade/shame it
4. Perceived reputational costs 5/
China will weigh/prioritize these factors, each of which has changed since 2008
- PRC-Pak rels deepened esp post-CPEC
- PRC-India rels more competitive since '08, but PRC has strat/econ interests incl limiting US-Ind rels
- PRC has terrorism concerns, incl in/from Pak 6/
- PRC-Pak rels deepened esp post-CPEC
- PRC-India rels more competitive since '08, but PRC has strat/econ interests incl limiting US-Ind rels
- PRC has terrorism concerns, incl in/from Pak 6/
US can try to shape Chinese decision. Indian analysts often cite Bush admin getting PRC on board Saeed listing or on NSG waiver for India. But PRC-US rel fundamentally different now. Even if US willing - & it'd weigh other interests - not clear it has ability to get PRC to yes 7/
India can also help shape Chinese decision. But question for Delhi is what it's willing to put on the table in return & whether it's worth given India's broader interests. Fmr. Amb to China G. Bambawale talked to Indian Exp. abt bargain last yr to let Pak be greylisted at FATF 8/
Reasons why China might let Azhar get designated (part 1):
- Pak rel will survive; Pak has few alternatives to PRC
- Pak knows ltd actual effect of designation (Saeed still active)
- Pak can take credit
- Unhappy w/ Pak re this situation & will convey limit of support on terr 9/
- Pak rel will survive; Pak has few alternatives to PRC
- Pak knows ltd actual effect of designation (Saeed still active)
- Pak can take credit
- Unhappy w/ Pak re this situation & will convey limit of support on terr 9/
Reasons why China might let Azhar get designated (part 2):
- Alleviates 1 problem w/ India (esp public); maybe get quid pro quo
- Gives US 1 less thing to point to when it's reinforcing Indian concerns abt PRC
- De-escalates situation/takes some immediate pressure off Pak
10/
- Alleviates 1 problem w/ India (esp public); maybe get quid pro quo
- Gives US 1 less thing to point to when it's reinforcing Indian concerns abt PRC
- De-escalates situation/takes some immediate pressure off Pak
10/
Reasons why China might NOT let Azhar get designated
- Impact on Sino-Pak
- Concern re credibility w/ Pak, other partners
- Thinks it won't get credit in India, but US will - & why give US a win
- Blowback in Pak vs PRC interests
- Opens door for more demands to pressure Pak 11/
- Impact on Sino-Pak
- Concern re credibility w/ Pak, other partners
- Thinks it won't get credit in India, but US will - & why give US a win
- Blowback in Pak vs PRC interests
- Opens door for more demands to pressure Pak 11/
Finally, there's a debate in India abt the time, effort, political capital being expended to get Azhar sanctioned since it will hv some effect (incl as political win, helping deescalation, FATF marker), but it'll be limited -- see note re Hafiz Saeed operating openly in Pak. 12/
Just to add, worth following @ajwsmall @ananthkrishnan, who might hv additional views/differences on this question...
Adding this previous tweet to this thread since it is relevant:
UPDATE China puts a hold on proposal by US, UK, France (backed by B'desh, Aus, etc) for the 1267 Sanctions Committee to put Pakistan-based terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar on the UN sanctions list. India says it is "disappointed;" thx every other cmte member
Response from India's permanent representative to the UN....
Reax from some Indian diplotweeps to China blocking the placing of UN-designated terror group JeM's chief Masood Azhar on UN sanctions list
Your regular reminder that China-India "reset" was only one of tone & not substance. The temperature "adjustments are not going to change key fundamental strategic—and competitive—dynamics in the relationship" -- sthg I wrote in April 2018 & hv heard from GOI officials since.
Response from India's former FonSec & amb. to China (1/2)
Response from India's former FonSec & amb. to China (2/2)
