,
8 tweets,
1 min read
Read on Twitter
Thread for non-Brits: WTF happened with Brexit? 1/ May failed yet again to get her 4 month old divorce deal thru because it is not rightwing enough for her own MPs and she has no majority....
2/ Why won't Labour/ progressive centrist parties support it? They are either against Brexit or want a softer break that rules out an independent trade policy?
3/ Why won't May compromise? She splits her party and lets the first left government in a major nuclear-armed power -the Conservatives would rather fall apart in office than allow Corbyn into power...
4/ So what happens now? Tomorrow MPs will be given an free vote on ruling out No Deal - that will pass, implying the U.K. will ask to delay Brexit for a short period. Thursday they will vote for a delay.... But...
5/ The executive is still in charge and will use the 2-month delay to create another hard deadline. EU nations now genuinely preparing for No Deal in May - with +/- 8% slump in U.K. GDP ...
6/ What should happen? There is a majority for a much softer, Norway style Brexit in Parliament - if the executive loses control of the legislatures business, that will probably happen. ...
7/ if not, May will be forced into a general election or, in extremis, ejected. Her Tory successor would have to go for a rapid soft Brexit solution.
8/ There is still a chance that either Parliament or May's successor will trigger a second referendum which cancels Brexit. This is my preferred option and I give it about 20% chance.
