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1) 33 months after the June 2017 referendum, U.K. continues to negotiate internally on the way it could exit the EU and on possible options for its future relations with the EU.
2) However, there are only two decisions the U.K. might take and for which it does not need the EU’s agreement : exit the EU without any deal, or revoke its article 50’s letter and remain a member of the EU.
3) For all other decisions, the U.K. needs the EU’s agreement. But the EU has two principles it will not accept to endanger: functioning of its single market and maintenance of peace and security for one of its member States.
4) True, UK is free to decide any option for its future relations with EU: the single market, a kind of EEA/Norw agreement, a Customs Union, a free trade agreement,etc...
5) But any of these options shall take 2 to 4 years to negotiate with the EU after the UK’s exit, because negotiations cannot take place before, while U.K. would still be an EU member.
6) This makes clearly unavoidable to agree on a transition period, during which the U.K. and the EU will negotiate their future relations. This period can be provided only by a Withdrawal Agreement based on Art 50, thus avoiding an immediate exit with no deal.
7) During that transition period, the two EU principles mentioned above must be respected. In particular, a solution must be found to respect the GFA and the absence of a hard border in the island of Ireland.
8) This is the situation now, because both Northern Ireland (and all U.K.) are both members of the same Single Market and the same Customs Union within the EU.
9) The only effective solution found up to now to this issue is the backstop as described in the draft WA between HMG and the EU. No other effective solution exist on the basis of currently available technologies.
10) Nobody knows how the 27 Heads will answer if U.K. requests a postponement of art 50 delay beyond 29th March. A short delay (of 2 or 3 months) might lead to exit without a deal. A longer delay (up to December 2019 ?) will imply that U.K. will participate to Eur Parl elections.
*2016
Or a long duration up to two years?
