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Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Exclusive

The Geoffrey Cox legal advice that Theresa May hopes will save her Brexit deal

AG has circulated advice with Tory MPs on how backstop could be terminated under terms of the Vienna Convention

But 'Star Chamber' says it is 'badly misconceived'

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Geoffrey Cox argues backstop could be revoked if it has a 'socially destabilising effect on NI'

'It is in my view clear and undoubted in those exceptional circumstances that international law provides the [UK] with the right to terminate the Withdrawal Agreement'
BUT there's a sting in the tail.

Star Chamber of Eurosceptic lawyers, which includes Nigel Dodds, has panned advice

In a 5-page analysis they say it is 'erroneous' and 'badly misconceived'

It represents a significant blow to the PM's bid to win over Eurosceptics & DUP for MV3
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More from @Steven_Swinford see all

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Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
Exclusive:

Labour whistleblower says Corbyn allies intervened in anti-Semitism cases as 'matter of routine'

Former official said dealing with sensitive complaints was 'like stepping on an an electric rail'

Labour says claims are 'malicious lies'

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Here's the Labour whistleblower:

'Cases were routinely discussed by the leader’s office

'It was like stepping on an electrified rail whenever we suspended someone known to Jeremy Corbyn. Loto [the leader’s office] engaged in disciplinary cases as a matter of routine'
Here's Labour's response:

'These are malicious lies from a disgruntled former employee.

'A request was made to individuals in leader’s office for help in clearing a backlog of cases, which was complied with in good faith. No evidence has been provided to back up these claims'
Read 3 tweets
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Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
Exclusive:

Geoffrey Cox has abandoned attempts to secure a hard time-limit or unilateral exit mechanism to Irish backstop

The aims, which represent the central demands of Eurosceptics, are considered too 'blunt' and have been rejected by EU

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Geoffrey Cox now focusing on an enhanced 'arbitration mechanism' that allows UK and EU to give formal notice that they want to break off from backstop

UK wants independent arbitration panel to decide whether backstop can end

EU is flatly rejecting - it wants ECJ to have role
Steve Baker on Cox abandoning backstop time-limit & unilateral exit:

'This seems to indicate a satirical approach to fulfilling Brady amendment.

'Brady required you replace backstop with alternative arrangements

'That's light years away from tweaking arbitration mechanisms'
Read 4 tweets
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Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
Some robust exchanges in Cabinet.

* Liz Truss criticised 'kamikaze' Cabinet Remainers for undermining PM by attempting to take no deal off the table

* Gavin Williamson warned extending A50 is runs risk of long extension - suggested EU will be able to set length
Andrea Leadsom said to be furious with Rudd, Gauke and Clark.

She said she was dismayed by the disintegration of collective responsibility.

She said Cabinet had lost 'credibility' with backbenchers and it had damaged credibility of party
There were a fair few Cabinet ministers warning against extending A50.

My latest count - which is rising by the minute - includes:

The PM
Gavin Williamson
Andrea Leadsom
Julian Smith
Brandon Lewis
Liz Truss
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Mark Stone
@Stone_SkyNews
Ahead of @theresa_may’s latest visit to Brussels, where are we with #Brexit?!

A not-so-short thread which I hope simplifies a seemingly never-ending process but one which could have an abrupt end in less than 40 days. /1
Some context first: The key problem is the backstop - the Irish Protocol to us its proper name

It’s a section of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) - a 585-page legal text which, together with a shorter Political Declaration (PD), forms the divorce treaty between UK & the EU. /2
The two texts - the WA & the PD - were the consequence of nearly two years of negotiations.

They were finalised + agreed by both the UK government (@10DowningStreet) and the EU (@EU_Commission) late last year. /3

(Skip to tweet 10 in the thread if you know this background!)
Read 25 tweets
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
Read 23 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
There are some very optimistic takes that a no deal #brexit is practically off the table because a majority in the house of Commons is against it. I am much more sceptical a no deal can be avoided, for five reasons:
1 Beware of confirmation bias: As late as when the withdrawal agreement was signed in November, many people in Berlin were convinced that the threat of no deal would be enough to get it passed. MPs would never risk no deal I was told when forecasting a strong rejection.
2 Don't overestimate resistance to No Deal. Over 60% of Conservative voters prefer a no deal Brexit to the deal and remaining, while even many Tory MPs regard the costs of no deal as overblown. It will not be easy to get a workable majority FOR an alternative.
Read 6 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Tonight at 2200 on @skynews i’ve been in the port of Larne, Northern Ireland with Daisy the cow, who could save the Brexit Deal or imperil the Union, depending on your view...#backstop #borderforcows
in the Northern Ireland port town of Larne, one of the places where Irish Sea checks would be required under EU Ireland Brexit backstop proposal, currently being negotiated in Brussels..
and one of the places where checks actually already happen on animal trade between Sco & NI
Barnier mentioned these existing “Irish Sea” checks as a precedent yesterday - but would have to be tenfold increase for backstop...DUP source said this was building “an entire edifice” on some foot & mouth checks for cows..MEP Diane Dodds said checks on lasagne as well as cows
Read 6 tweets

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