, 23 tweets, 11 min read Read on Twitter
A detailed thread on Pakistan's debt and Foreign exchange reserves. #NayaPakistan is on the way becoming #NayaPaisaPakistan
In August 2018, foreign exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) stood at $10bn. Pak borrowed $3bn from SaudiArabia and $2bn from UAE. As of March 8, 2019, foreign exchange reserves with the SBP stood at $8bn. Still they are in talks with IMF to get $12bn more.
By Jan2019, the accumulated stock of circular debt had soared to Rs1.4 trillion. For the record, the PTI govt added Rs260billion in 137 days. The PTI govt is adding Rs2bn a day every day of the year (a few years ago, the same figure was Rs1bn a day). ((Rs is PKR currency))
FDI: The Total foreign investment during July-January FY2018 was $4.1 billion. The same figure for July-January FY2019 is $1 billion according to State Bank of Pakistan. Even Chinese investment which is coming getting reduced. Read as #CPEC.
Foreign investment in different sectors of Pakistan’s economy slowed down by 23% to $1.62 billion in first eight months (Jul-Feb) of the current fiscal year 2018-19 following completion of several early harvest projects of the CPEC.
Debt: Pakistan's debt is growing at a faster rate than it's growth rate.
In 2008, Pak's debt stood at Rs6 trillion. In 2013, it reached Rs16 trillion. In 2018, it reached Rs30Trillion. The PML-N took it to Rs30 trillion by taking on additional debt of Rs7.7 billion a day.
Foreign debt has gone up by $5.7 billion over the past seven months, after ImranKhan assumed office. Pakistan is taking an additional foreign debt at the rate of $814million every month (PML-N took $566 million a month). Debt already crossed $100bn in the beginning of 2019.
PKR depreciation: Pakistan's rupee PKR which is 105/$ in Dec2017 depreciated to 140/$ at present. It might fall below 150 by July2019 & might even cross 180 later by early 2020. Latest decision by UAE on non-committal of $3bn which it promised to Pak increases it's chances.
Pakistan's budget on FY2017 has 45% on Interest on debt financing + Military expenditure which in FY2018 crossed 57% of the Total federal budget.
Pakistan which is struggling to attract few $bn on investment showing a great picture which is actually on paper. China till now invested $26bn on CPEC. Saudi gave $3bn on Forex. Even Renault carplant, Russian investment also on paper. However they say they got $93bn investment.
Even after 30% PKR depreciation, Pak's exports were not crossed $27bn. For Diamer-Bhasha dam whose crowd funding generated $600mn till now is to be $18bn+ in present dollar terms was not even started. Pakistan's automobile sector is still using 1980's 660cc Suzuki engine. An Ex:
Pakistan which is in full Drunk mode after latest escalations will India forgot about it's economy & sanctioning more money for defense & for oil reserves Incase of war. Also for weeks Pakistan's aerospace were banned for foreign flights incurring huge losses as well.
Pak's Finance minister #AsadUmar who is not allowing PKR to be valued based on Market has to bow down later this year to allow it's depreciation which will make Pakistan's GDP lower than B'desh GDP & take it to pre-2014 level where it's GDP is $250bn.
Those who are proudly chest thumping on Pakistan's growth itself now screaming for the inflation & PKR depreciation. Wait for another 6months, instead of tears, blood will come out of their eyes. @majorgauravarya @MajorPoonia @AdityaRajKaul
Out of 58 countries in OIC(Org of Islamic Countries), Saudi-Turkey-UAE only supports Pakistan. UAE agreed for $3.2bn deferred oil payment for Pakistan in Jan2019, now gone back on it in March2019. why the remaining 55countries didn't support Pak? Is this not Isolation?
When every Pakistani citizen compares F16 vs Mig27, what they actually forgot is their economy actually. A comparison of economies in the last 40yrs by Nominal GDP.
Pakistan has hinted at adopting a more #flexible #exchangerate policy by moving away from a managed currency regime, as the country vies for an early deal with the IMF. It's expected #PKR will get depreciate sooner. tribune.com.pk/story/1932274/…
Flood gates are ready to get opened. Pakistan government is considering hiking power tariffs by 25% and gas prices by 41% from the next fiscal year. #ImportedInflation.
Ahead of IMF mission’s visit, Pakistani rupee hits all-time low at 139.4 against USD tribune.com.pk/story/1932285/…
The IMF process on providing loan of $12bn is already in process. Sooner or later we will hear the news on PKR depreciation.I have started this thread 2days back however in today's @etribune news confirms the same. It's a mere coincidence. Hahahaha!
#Rawalpindi don't understand the pain even if there are multiple #SurgicalStrikes however a simple strike on SBP(State Bank of Pak), i.e. on PKR will make them kneel-down as masses will be the one affected by Fuel/LPG price hike & already commodity prices were skyrocketed.
Pakistan's External debt already exceeded $100 billion by beginning of 2019 & it increases $800mn every year. The deferred oil payment is also adding to the debt. The debt repayment increases yr-on-yr as it is $7bn in 2018 and $9bn in 2019. @famia_chuhan
Pakistan's External debt to GDP ratio at present is 30% which will further increase to 38% and will be magnified by PKR depreciation as well. Presently Pakistan's GDP is $275bn only & not $315bn. (In 2014, it was $250bn)
Pak whose Nominal GDP is $275bn at present & assumed growth rate of 3-5% with PKR depreciating 3-5%, it will take how much years to cross $1Trillion first? All your suggestions are welcome.
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