Profile picture
Jim O'Shaughnessy
@jposhaughnessy
, 9 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
Sunday night #FinTwit has spoken. The good news is that by releasing the results of this simulation, I'll surely motivate people who don't like quants to change their votes, thus influencing the outcome. But that way, everyone can still have fun.
Thursday, March 21 @ RLS Wealth Management Pavilion
(1) @Wu_Tang_Finance vs.
(4) @BagholderQuotes
Projected winner (89% probability) @Wu_Tang_Finance
Saturday, March 23 @ StockTwits Stadium
(2) @RampCapitalLLC vs.
(3) @RudyHavenstein
Projected winner (98% probability) @RampCapitalLLC
Thursday, March 28 @ AQR Capital Management Center
(1) @StockCats vs.
(4) @Hipster_Trader
Projected winner (88% probability) @StockCats
Saturday, March 30 @ Alpha Architects Arena
(2) @BullyEsq vs.
(3) @OddStats
Projected winner (54% probability) @OddStats
Semi-Finals, TBD
(1) @Wu_Tang_Finance vs.
(2) @RampCapitalLLC
Projected winner (89% probability) @RampCapitalLLC
Semi-Finals, TBD
(1) @StockCats vs.
(2) @OddStats
Projected winner (91% probability) @StockCats
Final, TBD
(1) @RampCapitalLLC vs.
(2) @StockCats
Projected winner (95% probability) @RampCapitalLLC
So there you have it, but as most of you know, really, what do I know?
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Jim O'Shaughnessy
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#FinTwit

More from @jposhaughnessy see all

Profile picture
Jim O'Shaughnessy
@jposhaughnessy
1/ Human judgment is limited And We’ve Known That A Long Time--A Thread

In an earlier thread, I looked at an experiment that showed that most of us naturally find more complex explanations more compelling while eschewing the simpler methods that were actually more accurate.
2/ Now, let’s take a look at how we’ve known this for a long, long time.

In 1984, David Faust wrote in his book, “the Limits of Scientific Reasoning,” that: “human judgment is far more limited than we think. We have a surprisingly restricted capacity to manage or
3/ interpret complex information.“ Studying a wide range of professionals, from medical doctors making diagnoses to experts making predictions of job success in academic or military training, Faust found that human judges were consistently outperformed by simple actuarial models
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
Jim O'Shaughnessy
@jposhaughnessy
1/ One reason we can't have nice investment strategies--a thread.

The brightest people I have met share a superpower that would serve investors well—the ability to make inherently complex things simple and understandable. And yet, most humans naturally equate complexity
2/ with brilliance. We also prefer the complex and artificial to the simple and unadorned. We are certain that investment success requires an incredibly complex ability to judge a host of variables correctly and then act upon that knowledge. Prof. Alex Bavelas designed a
3/ fascinating experiment in which two subjects, Smith and Jones, face individual projection screens. They cannot see or communicate with each other. They’re told that the purpose of the experiment is to learn to recognize the difference between healthy and sick cells.
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
Jim O'Shaughnessy
@jposhaughnessy
The Tao Can Help You When Contemplating The Dow—Part 2

1/ In verse 15 of the “Tao Te Ching,” Lao Tzu looks at “ancient times” and the masters of those days being “minutely subtle, mysteriously comprehending, and too profound to be known.” He goes on to say:
2/ “They were muddy like unreflecting water. The mud will settle, but it is hard to wait for it. If you can, then you can act. If you follow the Tao without pretension you will never burn yourself out.”

Translation: a wise person is careful, cautious and patient.
3/ In the market, many investors feel the need to *react* to everything that is happening. They equate action with effectiveness. Lao Tzu cautions us against this: when things are murky and muddy, you can’t see things clearly. You’re not seeing the true picture and might
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Erin For Rep. Higgins’ District
@erinscafe
you better believe I’m already down that rabbit hole

and I have questions
“Bound in water-resistant, earth-toned digital camouflage covers, the special volume of the New American Bible, Revised Edition (NABRE) is durable, lightweight, and handy for easy reference in all kinds of circumstances, including combat.”

WHAT IS HAPPENING
I’m no combat expert, but if you’re looking up specific Bible verses, I really think you’re doing it wrong.
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
Friend or Foe?
@starknightz
1.) Jan 22, 2019 Pm News ~ Overnight Clashes Follow Venezuelan Officers' Failed Attempt To Lead Anti-Maduro Coup zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-2…

#News #Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
2.) Jan 22, 2019 Pm News ~ Davos Elites Begrudgingly Admit
"It Takes More Than Propping Up The S&P To Drive Global Growth" zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-2…

#News #Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
3.) Jan 22, 2019 Pm News ~ A. Wess Mitchell 41, top diplomat in charge of European affairs, will resign from State Department next month according to the WaPo zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-2…

#News #Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
Read 115 tweets
Profile picture
🎄🔶🌸❄️Sakura To Yuki No Seirei❄️🌸🦋⚢⚧
@SakuraNoSeirei
So, I've waded through the Evangelical Alliance's new pastoral "guidelines" for interacting with trans people (ughh, the things I do to expose #transphobic #ciswits to the world), and let's just say it's time to tear this particular sh*t-bag a new hole.

1/n
CW: #Transphobia, #ConversionTherapy, #Zucker, #Religiously #driven #zealotry

2/n
So, straight off the bat, first page of text, the use of #language is . . . well, yeah, see for yourself:

"It is important to remember that transgender is not simply an issue to be debated;" - p5, #Transformed

*sigh*

When such language gets reinforced by insisting...

3/n
Read 176 tweets
Profile picture
Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
1⃣Last night I gave my first public lecture on extreme weather since being "investigated" by Rep. Raul Grijalva in 2015. In the lecture I tell a story and present updated, consensus science on extreme weather. Let's get started ...
2⃣I started with a disclosure of everyone I've voted for in presidential elections since 1988. I also included who I supported in 1980 (John Anderson, of course), the first election I can remember actually following, when I was 12 and in 7th grade.
3⃣I start with the Wikileaks releases of John Podesta's emails in 2016.
I turned up in them. I know. It's nuts.
In them a staffer at the Center for American Progress emailed Podesta and billionaire Tom Steyer to brag about getting me removed as a writer for Nate Silver's 538.
Read 66 tweets
Profile picture
Sune Auken, Genre Research, #FBPE #FBR
@GenreResearch
A short thread on #RemainerNow-acceptance. To my pleasure, I have noticed that when someone declares herself or himself a @RemainerNow the recepetion from the Remainer-community and particularly the #FBPE communitiy has been largely enthusiastic. 1/
However there invariably seem to be somebody that is so furious about the whole Brexit ordeal that they fire all cannons upon meeting a #Remainernow. I find that at the same time completely understandable and a very dumb move. 2/
It's completely understandable because Brexit is such an enormous act of stupidity on a national and international level that it must get tempers rising. In particular, of course, tempers with continuous remainers who have seen Brexit for the shambles it is from the start. 3/
Read 16 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Winning #Muslim #USD #deflation #SP500 #VoterFraud #KS03 #Fight #entertainment #FakeNews #MAGA #Alliance #Conversion #HRC #language #Gnosticism #news #News #KimDotCom #black #young #ClimateControl #USDJPY #antifreewill #MondayMotivation
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!