Thread by @DavidHenigUK

It is widely accepted that the UK Government and Parliament made a major mistake in invoking Article 50 without a plan.

Rather than learn from this Government and many MPs now suggest we need to support the Withdrawal Agreement without a plan for the future.

1/11

Why did Government and MPs invoke Article 50? Because they were under pressure to show that ‘Brexit is being delivered’

What is the main argument from switchers to supporting the deal now? To show that ‘Brexit is being delivered’

2/

Strangely enough, nobody actually thanks MPs for outsourcing their critical faculties to opinion polls, the media, or similar.

They will not thank MPs in a year’s time if it turns out it was not a good idea to sign the Withdrawal Agreement now.

3/

The Withdrawal Agreement will be an international treaty that, forget the Vienna Convention talk of renunciation, we commit to for a very long time.

Do MPs know enough about the implications of the Withdrawal Agreement to vote in favour?

4/

The UK will be following many EU regulations and implementing their tariffs with no say over them until a new arrangement can be agreed.

Typically EU trade agreements take 5 to 7 years from start of talks to implementation. That’s a lot of following.

5/

Currently it is suggested that under the Northern Ireland backstop if the Assembly restarts they will have veto power over regulations for the UK.

Has consideration been given as to the impact this will have on the UK’s constitutional and devolved settlement, e.g. Scotland?

6/

For those who want to see a future UK-US trade deal, the section of the Withdrawal Agreement dealing with Geographical Indications means the UK cannot meet a key US demand.

Among other implications, there are also continuing state aid restrictions.

7/

Are those voting for the deal confident that UK business will be treated equally to EU business during transition? The question has not been raised much, the assumption made, but of course not tested.

There has been no official government impact assessment of the agreement.

8/

Back to the plans for the future, the Government has not provided any indication of how the UK plans to negotiate the future relationship.

Bear in mind that the Political Declaration does not, as a non-binding document, require any one particular outcome.

9/

Instead of analysis we get political games. Last chance for Brexit, or turn down and hope for no-deal? For remainers, best Brexit they could have, or turn down and hope for referendum?

Better question, are MPs prepared to honestly say this is a treaty the UK should sign?

10/

Business and individuals want certainty. They are desperate to see this treaty agreed.

Sadly I can’t support that. There are far too many unanswered questions, far too many problems deferred. Delay and do better is better for me than sign, but sign better than no deal.

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