Thread by @Usherwood

Let's not forget where we are right now:

1/

We're 11 days out from the end of the Art.50 period.

At the end of that period, the UK will leave the EU without an agreement, and all current arrangements will lapse

2/

For that not to happen - which is the stated intent of the UK Parliament - one of two things have to happen:
- the UK agrees a deal with the EU;
- the UK decides to revoke Art.50 and stays in the EU

3/

In practice, that first option means either agreeing an extension to the Art.50 (again, Parliament's stated intent), either to be able to sign up/ratify the current Withdrawal Agreement or to negotiate a new version

4/

As at now, the EU has not only not agreed to an extension, it has yet to discuss whether it would, not least because the UK has yet to ask

5/

That means there's almost no chance the EUCO on Thursday will be able to make a decision on this, but instead will have to work out something early next week, a few days before the 29 March deadline

6/

What would really help the EU would be to know what the UK plans to do with any extension, but that is no clearer now than at any other point in the process.

This will make the EU27 more wary of signing off on more time for more uncertainty

7/

Last week's votes were all very dramatic, but ultimately underlined that Parliament is no more settled than the UK gvt on this

8/

So, 11 days out, we have no agreement on a deal, no agreement on ratifying a deal, no agreement on an extension and no sign of revocation.

Which means: we continue to head towards a no-deal that Parliament says it will not countenance

9/

Which also means: something is going to have to change very soon, be that agreement on doing something or acceptance that no-deal is happening

Either way will be a major development

10/

(and no, I don't know how it'll pan out)

10a/

In sum, somewhat incredible that we're in this situation at this stage in proceedings

/end